Abstract: An increase in nationalism and the birth of far-right movements have swept across continental Europe over the last decade, with scholars highlighting parallels between many of the platforms of these far-right parties. Many of which are built upon anti-immigration, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-abortion stances. Interestingly, the birth of the far-right in Catalonia is in the context of a unique political situation, the Catalan Independence Referendum of 2017. This leads to the possibility of a new factor that could have shaped far-right party support and preferences on Catalan independence. Using graphical analysis and linear regressions to examine Catalan opinion polls from 2014 through 2024, this work investigates what factors led to the rise of the far-right, whether Catalan independence stances or more widespread far-right ideologies. This work concludes that even though there are far-right links to Spanish identity and institutional discontent, reactions against the independence movement and a consistent belief in the regional integration of Catalonia drove this growth. These conclusions illustrate the difficulty the independence movement in Catalonia will face in the future, given a decrease in Catalan identity and support for independence in the context of Vox’s emergence.

Thesis Advisor: Ana Arjona

Abstract: This thesis investigates how various asymmetric information structures impact cooperation and strategy in communal resource-sharing situations. 176 participants played a resource distribution game, with varying amounts of information. Findings suggest that total visibility or complete lack thereof fosters optimal cooperation, while partial information leads to suboptimal, unsustainable outcomes. Specifically, free-rider behavior is observed in scenarios where participants believe other players are colluding without them, leading to increased token extraction. These findings suggest that half-hearted coordination efforts may be less effective than no coordination at all, highlighting the importance of comprehensive and committed collective action. By understanding these underlying mechanisms, researchers can gain valuable insights into how to design more effective conservation initiatives.

Thesis Advisor: Jason Seawright 

Abstract: Russia’s liberal opposition, especially in recent years, has consistently struggled with the issue of unification despite the wide variety of leaders and movements that oppose President Putin. This problem remains important to investigate given that prior research on other nations has suggested that opposition unity is a necessary factor in the replacement/overthrowing of authoritarian regimes. With this in mind, I have posed the following question for my research: What factors prevent Russia's liberal opposition from successfully unifying and mounting successful action against President Putin, especially following the events of 2022? To answer this question, I have looked into the positions of four opposition leaders and their respective movements – Alexei Navalny, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov, and Maxim Katz – to determine whether contentions preventing unification arise from ideological policy, tactical, or personality differences. My research has shown that out of these three categories, personality differences have been shown to cause the most issues between the leaders, and even their supporters, with ideological policy being the least contentious factor. Such a conclusion poses multiple questions, specifically surrounding the viability of the liberal opposition’s continued operation given that its leadership repeatedly makes an effort to consolidate power around themselves, and does not shy away from public accusations and insults. Following the death of Alexei Navalny, a moment some thought could lead to some mending of relations, the personal attacks have only increased, with leaders and supporters alike being arguably in a more divided state than before. Just two months later, the opposition has seemed to largely have moved on from him despite efforts of the Anti-Corruption Foundation to establish his name as a symbol of anti-government resistance – an effort largely considered a failure by other leaders. Navalny’s passing combined with the sheer amount of ongoing personal attacks and contentions amongst liberal leadership ultimately suggest an uncertain future for Russia’s liberal opposition, at least, in the form it exists today.

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Roberts

Abstract: In today’s hyper-partisan political environment, it is a common complaint that Congress is broken. This is especially true for the Senate, where the filibuster and cloture rule have created a de facto requirement for a 60-vote supermajority to pass almost any legislation, sparking widespread calls from activists and senators alike to reform or even abolish the filibuster. In this paper, I predict the effects of different proposals for the filibuster and cloture rule on a set of “legislative goods,” including productivity, bipartisanship, and policy stability. I test the effects of three different filibuster rule proposals on these legislative goods. To predict the effects of these rule changes, I extend Wawro and Schickler’s expected-utility model of legislative entrepreneurship under cloture by considering the costs faced by bill proponents and obstructionists alike. Using this model, which excels at explaining the evolution of past filibuster fights, I predict the outcomes of legislative battles under different filibuster rules. The results will inform activists and senators in future debates over filibuster reform — which will inevitably return the next time a popular bill is stymied by the Senate’s supermajoritarian rules.

Thesis Advisor: Daniel J. Galvin

Abstract: As the salience of populist political movements grows across the Western world, so has the body of research and discourse that considers what threat, if any, populism could pose to the stability of democratic institutions. This is in part due to the anti-establishment rhetoric that characterizes populism, as it rejects the capabilities of representative institutions to represent and respond to the people, functions which are fundamental to American democracy. The objective of this study is to provide insights into whether exposure to the rhetoric that populists employ has the ability to weaken the American peoples’ confidence in representative institutions, both in their effectiveness in representing and serving the interests of the public they are elected to represent, and in their stability. This relationship is investigated using a survey experiment, in which participants are randomly exposed to either neutral or populist messaging from a candidate running to be the president of the United States. Findings suggest that exposure to populist rhetoric did in fact reduce confidence in the efficacy of institutions.

Thesis Advisor: Larry Stuelpnagel

Abstract: Few issues in modern political discourse are more controversial than abortion. As such, abortion policies vary greatly from country to country, with some countries prohibiting the procedure altogether while others permit abortion “on demand.” Given that the safety of abortion procedures diverges widely between countries with liberal abortion policies and those with more restrictive ones, cross-national variation in abortion policies has important implications for international public health and gender equality. To shed light on the reasons for cross-country differences in abortion policies, this study uses bivariate and multivariate analyses to determine how ten independent variables correlate with abortion policy outcomes in 187 countries. The results suggest that Human Development Index, Gender Development Index, women’s representation in parliament, earlier allowance of women’s suffrage, women’s representation in the labor force, women’s educational attainment, gross domestic product per capita, and gross national income per capita are all positively correlated with liberal national abortion policies, while Gender Inequality Index and religiosity are negatively correlated with liberal abortion policies.

Thesis Advisor: Joanna Grisinger

Abstract: There are countless examples, both past and present, of U.S. politicians harshly criticizing corporations and using the powers of their office to, at times, inhibit a business’s ability to generate revenue and profit. Moments of tension between government and businesses should be expected given the government’s mostly regulatory and oversight role with respect to private markets. However, recently, there appears to be a new highly adversarial relationship forming between select businesses and politicians. A growing number of corporations across the U.S. have begun openly and intentionally delving into the political arena exercising their right to free speech to criticize policies and politicians. In response to corporations becoming perhaps more open in their opposition, or support of political policies, especially highly contentious ones, certain politicians have begun implementing an incipient political tactic: vindictively, loudly, and harshly attacking businesses to hurt their profit-making ability and push them into silence. This thesis uses an experiment to answer whether voters support this emerging political tactic, and under what circumstances their support might increase or wane. Results from my experiment reveal that partisanship, specifically whether the voter shares the party of the “attacker politician,” is the biggest predictor determining whether a voter will even consider supporting these types of attacks. Further, even when these attacks are initiated by an in-party politician (same party affiliation as the respondent), there is no evidence to suggest that the politician benefits electorally from engaging in the attack. Harsh attacks against a business, however, including those initiated by an in-party politician, were emphatically rejected by voters. Overall, politicians stand to gain very little from their own party by engaging in these types of attacks, and risk losing even greater support from voters of the opposite party.

Thesis Advisor: Mary C. McGrath

Abstract: The 2023 elections in Turkey brought negative national sentiment towards Syrian refugees to the fore in both campaign messaging and public opinion polls. This thesis explores how the presence of refugees affected the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey and the mechanisms and theories that shape this relationship. The following research assesses the impact of the presence of Syrian refugees on voting for the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections through a mixed methods approach consisting of regional voting, survey data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analyses. In the presidential elections, the results indicated that the presence of refugees did not have a statistically significant effect on voting for the anti-refugee candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Conversely, in the parliamentary elections, the results suggest that a higher concentration of refugees in a province, particularly in major metropolitan centers, correlates with increased support for extreme single-issue antirefugee parties, exemplified by the findings for the Zafer Party. The research also considers how the mechanisms of intergroup contact between Syrian refugees and Turks impacts voting for anti-refugee parties and finds that contact may lead to a slight increase in support for anti-refugee candidates. These findings underscore the importance of single-issue anti-refugee parties in the nexus between the presence of refugees and electoral outcomes in host countries.

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: Out of all of the Asian ethnic groups in the United States, Vietnamese Americans tend to hold conservative political preferences, including on the issue of immigration. This paper aimed to understand how the Vietnam War and the experiences and historical memories of this era translate into political preferences on immigration, and what variables might cause any differences in political preferences among Vietnamese Americans. Primarily through qualitative interviews, this paper sought to confirm whether there was a relationship between the Vietnam War and political preferences on immigration at all, and if immigrant generation might be a variable in discerning any differences within the community. What was eventually discovered was that there is a direct relationship between the Vietnam War and the years that followed (immigration and the process of resettlement) and political preferences on immigration. With this relationship supported by the interviews, it was also concluded that political preferences on immigration were varied by immigrant generation, age, and nativity, based on the different experiences faced by these different demographics. It was the personal experiences of each ,individual that seemed to determine political preferences on immigration rather than any other variables. This research helps better understand political preferences within the Vietnamese American community, and perhaps the understanding of political preferences overall.

Thesis Advisor: Julie Lee Merseth

Abstract: Prior research has established that part of the anti-democratic sentiment seen from American partisans stems from perceptions that rival partisans are more anti-democratic than they truly are. A common way to combat this is to correct partisans with real data from out-partisans and measure the resulting change in anti-democratic sentiment. This study examines whether American Republicans’ view of socialism as anti-democratic and popular among Democrats may exacerbate their anti-democratic sentiments. To explore such perceptions, an initial survey with 720 partisans (split evenly between parties) was conducted followed by a preregistered survey experiment with 1,396 Republicans who were corrected with true Democratic support for socialism. This research finds that although Republicans view socialism through an anti-democratic lens, a correction with real-world data is an ineffective strategy in decreasing anti-democratic sentiment. Furthermore, I uncover evidence that Republicans are strikingly accurate when assessing Democratic support of socialism and that greater estimates of Democratic support are associated with increases in their own anti-democratic sentiment.

Thesis Advisor: Jordan Gans-Morse

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated immediate and strategic interventions from global governments to minimize its adverse effects on public health, economic stability, and societal norms. This paper assesses the key challenges faced by researchers and addresses factor selection problems. It critically assesses traditional correlational studies and parametric analyses. The paper advances current methodologies in handling extensive, cross-sectional datasets with machine learning approaches - using LASSO regression and the Random Forest algorithm combined with various imputation methods to analyze 1,685 potential factors in 172 countries. The paper offers a roadmap for conducting inductive machine learning. This is particularly useful for empirical studies where primary subjects are abstract across different fields. By evaluating over a thousand potential variables, the study identifies critical predictors of pandemic severity and effective governmental responses. The paper discusses long-term strategies for enhancing societal resilience against global health crises, expanding the research frontier by introducing novel hypotheses about governance and institutional structures. 

Thesis Advisor: James Mahoney

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: J Seawright

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Galya Ben-Arieh

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Traci Burch

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Mary McGrath

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Matthew Kugler

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Chloe Thurston

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Michael Loriaux

[Update coming soon]

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Roberts

Abstract:  Between December 2020 and March 2021, PKN Orlen, the Polish national oil refinery,
completed a takeover of Polska Press, the owner of twenty regional daily newspapers with over
fifteen million online readers. To date, this has been the Law and Justice Party’s most significant
achievement within its campaign to “repolonize,” or ensure greater domestic ownership, of its
media. Allegations of media capture and democratic backsliding, as well as changes in article
content regarding coverage of controversial political stories, have proliferated throughout the
Polish news media ecosystem. They compel a longitudinal content analysis of pre-repolonization
and post-repolonization newspaper content to evaluate if and to what extent these highly political
consequences have been borne out. This study used content and discourse analysis to examine
changes in word count (as a proxy for article quality), frequency of name citation of politicians
and PiS affiliates, and the level of nativism across Polska Press newspapers and Gazeta Wyborcza,
a national-level control. Results indicated that article quality, as expressed through word count,
did not appear to fall at Polska Press newspapers, relative to Gazeta Wyborcza. Politicians at
Polska Press newspapers were named less frequently than before the intervention, and the rate of
mention of PiS figures fell dramatically as well – this outcome variable was somewhat muddied
by steep increases in politician and PiS figure name citation in Gazeta Wyborcza, which was meant
to serve as the control. The level of nativism in Polska Press articles, and especially in syndicated
articles across multiple newspapers, did not increase. Many of these findings are counterintuitive,
and invite more research into the nature of the Polish case of government media capture. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Andrew Roberts

Abstract: Existing literature on migration has largely failed to consider short-term, low-skill labor
migrants within the larger framework of integration and belonging processes, as policymakers and
political institutions assume that these processes only apply exclusively to migrants with long-term
settlement patterns (i.e., refugees). Consequently, policies and laws both in the US as well as abroad
have often excluded short-term, low-skill labor migrants from their integration/belonging policies
and resources. This research seeks to provide an exploratory study of the lived experience of short-term, low-skill labor migrants to evaluate if they do indeed undergo integration/belonging processes,
and if so, how short-term, low-skill labor migrants’ processes differ from long-term immigrants that
might be vital in guiding policy decisions and programs in the future. Through a qualitative, case
study analysis of Chinese short-term, low-skill labor migrants in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, this
study finds that short-term, low-skill labor migrants do indeed experience processes of integration
and belonging, with some overlapping similarities with long-term immigrants. However, despite some
initial similarities, their processes also widely differ from long-term immigrants and challenge
traditional models of integration posited by scholars like Ager and Strang. Despite its exploratory
nature, this study provides the groundwork for future research to build off of any initial patterns that
were identified and further provide the necessary visibility to the lived experiences of all short-term,
low-skill labor migrants. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Galya Ben-Ariech

Abstract: The advancement of the platform economy is arguably one of the most prominent features of the current day job market. Its emergence reflects the combined effect of the internet boom, the
decades-long effort of commercial liberalization, and the acceptance of the just-in-time
workforce as a social norm. While the platform economy is highly preferred by businesses and
customers, work and social benefits associated with work are becoming increasingly precarious
and insecure. This research uses case studies to understand the connection between sector market
performance, platform economy-specific legislation, and welfare regimes in Spain, France,
Denmark, and Sweden. Results show that although the welfare regimes are good predictors of
platform-related legislation, it takes time for policymakers to pass laws to protect workers.
Furthermore, even when two countries share similar welfare regimes and platform
economy-specific collective agreements, market performance—especially the nascent online
food delivery sector—can vary due to factors such as sector historical presence and Covid-19.
Last but not least, sector differences manifest in the way.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Jean Clipperton

Abstract: Over the past fifty years, U.S. tax policies have facilitated, rather than mitigated,
surging economic inequality, shifting massive amounts of wealth and income to those at the top
of the scale. The “median voter theorem,” first posited by economist Anthony Downs, suggests
that in an ideal democratic two-party system, moderate candidates from both parties tend to win
general elections by appealing to the center of the public opinion in their constituencies.
However, recent U.S. congressional elections seem to contradict this model. This thesis employs
a case study analysis of key 2020 Senate races in which six historically conservative
states—Kansas, North Carolina, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee—became noteworthy
battlegrounds. In all cases except Georgia and Texas, the candidates who won supported
economic policies, particularly on taxation and redistribution, that were becoming increasingly
unpopular among the public in their states but were aligned with the policy preferences of
ultra-wealthy conservatives. In order to offer a potential explanation for this outcome, I evaluate
the internal dynamics of the primary elections, such as low turnout, low visibility, and the
activity of ideologically-driven party activists and elites, which may have impacted the
nomination process. I also compare the policy preferences of major candidates and public
opinion on tax reform and redistribution in each state to the political contributions from 66 of the
top conservative billionaire donors during the 2019-2020 election cycle. Together, these elements
reveal that the candidates funded by these billionaires are the ones who are, more often than not,
elected and in many cases, more ideologically extreme than other primary and general election
candidates.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Benjamin Page

Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic introduced much of the United States to Zoom, a relatively
unused web-conferencing platform pre-COVID-19 pandemic, and forced millions of Americans
to rely on it for schooling, work, and daily communication between friends and loved ones. The
2020 presidential cycle was not immune to this phenomenon as all 2020 political campaigns
across the country shifted their get out the vote and fundraising efforts to Zoom and other web-conferencing platforms. The ongoing use of virtual platforms by political campaigns (and other
industries in the U.S.) even as the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, raises the question: how
effective are virtual political campaign events at turning out voters and fundraising when
compared to in-person events? I attempt to answer the question by running an experiment where
participants are randomly assigned to attend a simulated campaign event in-person or over
Zoom. I find that differences between in-person and virtual mediums have no effect on voter
turnout and fundraising. However, voter turnout and fundraising are indirectly affected by
participants’ engagement with the event, their perceptions of the candidate, and their event
experience, all of which are in turn affected by the differences between in-person and virtual
campaigns. The study results showed that in-person campaign events performed better than
virtual ones in terms of both participant engagement and perceptions of the candidate. But given
the relatively small differences between the two, the clear benefits of virtual events, and both the
staying power and growth of virtual products, campaigns should remain open to the idea of using
virtual campaign events—when appropriate—in the foreseeable future.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Jamie Druckman

Abstract: The 2018 Election recorded the highest number of votes by Americans in any midterm election, with particularly high rates for Black Americans.  How much of this had to do with church?  I investigate the relationship between religiosity and turnout in the 2018 using the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study.  I find a lack of a significant relationship between religiosity and turnout for Black Americans on the individual- or district-level.  I conduct interviews with seven Chicagoland residents on the motivators behind their turnout understand how church may motivate turnout.   I determine that religion serves to shape the sociopolitical beliefs and resources to vote that respondents access, but other communities can play a similar role.  Using a combination of the 2018 CCES and roll call votes, I determine whether districts with higher Black turnout have better representation for issues that Black voters care about.  I find that, ultimately, alignment with the party of the Representative is what matters. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Harbridge-Yong and Professor Chen

Abstract: The responsibility to protect came out of a desire to formalize international responses to mass atrocities, especially in the wake of various genocides and crimes against humanity in the 1990’s.
In 2011, Col. Muammar Qaddafi’s brutality against democracy protests — and later civilians
during the initial uprisings — caused a stir among the international community. Roughly a month
after protests started, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution authorizing the use
of military force to protect civilians. It would be the first implementation of the new R2P policy.
Fast-forward a decade, and Libya’s situation is precarious. Many analysts blame the intervention
as the impetus for the decline of the state of Libya. The chief aim of this paper is to use the
Libyan intervention as a case study in ethical humanitarian intervention within the framework of
compassionate pragmatism (to be defined in the study). By doing that, this paper seeks to offer
insight into the ethics of the intervention — and what that tells of the R2P doctrine’s viability in
the future.

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Karen Alter

Abstract: This research focuses on the rural residents of Pennsylvania and distinctions that manifest between this group and non-rural Pennsylvania residents. The specific differences explored are within the areas of political knowledge, policy opinion, and participation. Other data analyzed includes information about levels of racial resentment and also reported levels of religiosity. The survey data utilized is from the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey (CCES). Analysis has shown that rural respondents have lower levels of political knowledge. Very few shifts are recorded over time in terms of the policy preferences of rural Americans, and rural residents differ from their peers on social policies more frequently than economic policies. No differences are found when respondents self-report religious importance. Finally, there are no real distinctions in the reported consumption of news media, nor the rates of self-reported political participation. However, rural respondents recorded higher levels of racial resentment than their non-rural counterparts.    

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Traci Burch

Abstract: While the concepts of pivotality and self-interest have both received significant attention in
political science, literature which connects the two is scarce. This study uses a novel two-part
experiment consisting of an economic game and a policy survey to answer the question of
whether increasing pivotality influences peoples’ propensity to vote in their self-interest. It finds
that pivotality does affect self-interest in voting, but the direction of this effect can vary; in some
contexts, increasing pivotality results in more selfish voting while in others, increasing pivotality
results in less selfish voting. The findings have important ramifications because of the increase in
voting rights restrictions seen across the country, the increased attention given to the study of
local politics, and the implications it may have for the viability of epistocracy

Thesis Advisor: Professor John Bullock

Abstract: When it comes to helping immigrants to the U.S. adjust economically, socially, and civically, the work typically falls on local government and nonprofit organizations. And in most major cities, nonprofits take the lead in administering crucial services in specific communities, with cities playing a supporting role. However, the immigrant community is not a monolith, and a nonprofit-led social safety net risks letting disadvantaged portions of the immigrant community fall through the cracks. This thesis aims to answer the question of how the city-nonprofit relationship ignores or even contributes to inequality between segments of the immigrant community, as well as providing recommendations for cities and nonprofits to ensure an equitable approach. Drawing on survey data and interviews with individuals at Chicago nonprofits, this project attempts to understand the immigrant services landscape from the nonprofit perspective to offer perspectives for an equitable path forward.  

Thesis Advisor: Professor Jaime Dominguez

 Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: COVID-19 serves as a stress test for democratic consolidation. Ghana proves a case study
demonstrative in the nuanced coexistence of democratic consolidation in terms of programmatic
policy creation and backsliding in terms of enforcement mechanisms. The programmatic nature
of government assistance bodes well for democratic consolidation in the country while the pre-existing clientelistic tendencies reflect the complex transparency and accountability difficulties
in the country. When pressed the government cuts corners, resorting to patron client politics
affected by scarcity of resources. The performance is impaired by the fall back of patron-client
politics, which was an issue in the country prior to the pandemic. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Will Reno

Abstract: The effectiveness or lack thereof of campaign spending has significant implications for
campaign finance issues. While research on the impact of campaign spending is not uncommon,
it is rarely used to explore primary election spending. This study attempts to measure the
relationship between primary spending and electoral outcomes while also adjusting for a number
of confounding variables. Using data from the last decade of U.S. Senate primaries, the study
finds that even after adjusting for these variables, there is a statistically significant positive
relationship between primary spending and electoral outcomes.

Thesis Advisor: Professor J. Seawright

Abstract: Existing discourse surrounding the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies centers
largely around the ramifications that are predicted to be felt by blue-collar workers. This project
focuses on examining a different aspect of the AI revolution by looking to the political impacts
created by the potential involvement of white-collar workers in job losses, especially in the light
of their disproportionate wealth and influence on politics. By looking to mentions of technology-driven job losses in the media, party platforms, and legislation, I attempt to quantitatively test
whether there is evidence that at-threat white collar workers are driving a more robust social and
political response to technology-driven job losses now when compared to the automation-driven
job losses of the 20th century that implicated only blue-collar workers. I find that technology-driven job losses are unquestionably more prominent in the media discourse now, but any thrust
by white-collar workers to create change in this area is yet to register in the later stage political
indicators of party platforms and legislation.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Benjamin I. Page

Abstract: Over 75 years have passed since American bombers dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the last hours of the Second World War. In the decades following, the world carefully avoided the use of nuclear weapons in the context of war despite a years-long arms race between the Soviet Union and the United States, the world’s two largest nuclear powers at the time. Some experts point toward nuclear arms control agreements between the two parties as a key factor in preventing the introduction of nuclear warheads into the realm of warfare. Despite initial support, several of these agreements have fallen into a state of
disarray, and ultimately, collapse. This study examines four nuclear arms control treaties between
the United States and the USSR/Russia — the INF Treaty, Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
(SALT II), START, and New START — and considers each treaty as a case study. The results of
this study suggest that no one factor is responsible for the collapse of these treaties. Instead, this
study shows that the nature of nuclear arms control faces the same problems as other types of
alliance-building. Nuclear arms control treaties are not robust and do not exist outside the larger
context of the relationship between the involved entities, therefore, they are subject to the same
variability as other manners of diplomacy and international engagement.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Hendrik Spruyt

Abstract: In recent years, scrutiny over China’s increasing participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations has grown, with many worrying that China’s participation will lead to a weakening of human rights norms in peacekeeping missions as well as a decrease in the efficacy of peacekeeping missions. An argument often made by the Western news media is that China’s interest in peacekeeping, especially in Africa, is driven solely by China’s dependence on African resources and the economic dividends reaped from resource extraction and trade. In response, there has been an increase in peacekeeping literature addressing China’s motivations when it comes to participating in UNPKOs. Several of these disregard, or wholly discredit, the claim that resource interests motivate China’s deployment of peacekeepers to UNPKOs. This thesis finds that while trade and resources play a role in China’s decision-making process, they are not the sole explanation for the deployment of Chinese peacekeepers. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Hendrik Spruyt

Abstract: This thesis analyzes Supreme Court clerk data to evaluate whether a justice’s ideology, race, gender or birth year affects the racial and gender diversity of their clerk hires. It first provides updated statistics on clerk racial, gender, and law school diversity from 1994-2018. After evaluating the research question using established clerk recruitment models, the thesis develops a distinct method for evaluating the impact of justice identities on clerk hiring outcomes using multi-level models and link-function comparison. The paper concludes that a justice’s ideology impacts the racial and gender composition of their clerks. Additionally, the paper finds that a justice’s gender and birth year impact their clerk gender diversity, with mixed evidence regarding the impact of these traits on clerk racial diversity. By exploiting clerk hiring as a novel form of judicial decision-making, the thesis finds support for the different voice, representational, and informational theories of gender and judicial decision-making.  

Thesis Advisor: Professor Chloe Thurston and Professor Grisinger

Abstract: Despite its relative infancy, clear trends regarding interstate reactions to cyber attacks
have begun to emerge. This thesis investigates whether or not nations respond disproportionately
mildly to cyber attacks. Three distinct national case studies are compared utilizing Mill’s method
of agreement to attempt to answer whether or not nations respond more mildly.
The concluding results confirm that nations respond less aggressively toward cyber
attacks when directly compared to like physical attacks. This thesis further posits that this
disparity stems from both a neoliberal as well as realist school of thought as national and
international leaders lack norms governing how to respond to interstate cyber conflict between
nations with asymmetric digital infrastructure.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Will Reno

Abstract: Private prisons and detention centers are prominent topics in political discourse due to concerns of inhumane conditions and unfair treatment of detainees. Despite these concerns, private
detention center corporations house over 70% of detainees and continue to procure contracts
with the federal government. This paper examines the bureaucratic capital that the private
corporations have accrued by hiring powerful public sector employees, a phenomenon known as
the “revolving door.” I first created a database of all revolvers at the five major private detention
center corporations and then conducted quantitative analysis. My findings show that the
revolvers generate an inequality of influence among corporations. Next, I used qualitative
analysis to understand ways that revolvers impact the contract procurement process and threat of
corruption that powerful revolvers pose within the industry. Lastly, this paper offers prescriptive
policy recommendations intended to limit the revolving door and resolve ethical and normative
political concerns.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Daniel Galvin

Abstract: Having been founded on the principles of economic and social cohesion, the European Union succeeds when its Member States succeed. A major avenue for maintenance of economic and
social cohesion, the EU Budget funds countless programs throughout various Member States and
provides financial stability and additional funds for grant-seeking projects. When the 2015
Migrant Crisis brought an influx of migrant and refugee populations in, programs tasked with
integrating and resettling those populations along with programs aimed at crisis and terror
prevention received institutional funds through the EU Budget. In order to ensure proper
distribution, the EU Budget and its various distributary agencies maintained social cohesion
between Member States and incoming third-country nationals. So how are funds distributed
within the European Union? This project explores the relationship between the European
Union as an Institution and the various actors by which it disseminates, legitimizes, and
reinforces social norms through fiscal policy and answers the question, how are norms affected
by fiscal policy within International Institutions? While creating a standardized and legally
binding set of communal values helps mitigate crises and aides in streamlining ethical financing
at an institutional level of ground-level programming, several key accountability issues arise.
Within existing institutional structures, high-quality accountability is necessary for the effective
internalization of norms throughout all levels of EU society.Transparency, knowledge of impact,
and the exclusion of non-citizens each pose distinct issues for the Budget of the European Union
achieving its goals of promoting cohesion.

Thesis Advisor: Professor Galya Ben-Arieh and Professor Jean Clipperton

Abstract: Since 2019, tensions between Hindu nationalists and Muslims in India have received greater
attention in mainstream political discourse. This thesis evaluates the impact of Hindu nationalism
on India’s relations with Iran, Turkey, and Malaysia during Narendra Modi’s premiership. While
Modi’s increasingly Hindu nationalist agenda has provoked rhetorical condemnations from these
three countries, the direct impact of Hindu nationalism on bilateral relationsis negligible. Although
this trio’s criticisms of India are partly out of solidarity with Muslims, they are largely symptoms
of their desire to challenge Saudi and Emirati hegemony in the Muslim world. Through detailed
analysis of current scholarship, newspaper articles, government publications, and interviews with
experts, I demonstrate that Hindu nationalism plays a superficial role in India’s relations with these
three countries, and is ultimately outweighed by pragmatic considerations. This research draws
attention to an understudied area of India’s foreign relations and the intersections between religion
and foreign policy, painting a clearer picture of India’s great power trajectory

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Elizabeth Shakman Hurd

Abstract: The role media institutions play in civil conflict is a widely contested topic in political science. Some scholars view the media as watchdogs, while others see media institutions as powerbrokers of public discourse. This work seeks to demonstrate the importance of contributing factors in the study of media and civil conflict. Using a mixed methods approach, this study seeks to highlight the second-order impact the RTLM broadcasts had on Rwandan political culture through the lens of deference to authority and normalization of violence. Through the exploration of both the Concordia RTLM transcript and ICTR transcript databases, this study concludes that the RTLM transcripts did have a contributing effect on the Rwandan genocide through short term changes in civilian political culture. The results of this paper suggest that scholars need to rethink their approach to explaining the onset of political violence and highlight the importance of the ‘contributing factors’ theory.  

Thesis Advisor: Professor Ana Arjona

Abstract: Over the last decade, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a mainstay in the everyday
lives of Americans. This thesis seeks to better understand what conditions can foster greater
regulation of government use of AI systems. The present government reliance on private politics
and the relatively low level of traditional government regulation of AI poses strong technical and
ethical concerns affecting the liberties of Americans. Critical to answering questions surrounding
regulation of AI are the legislative and electoral influences involved. How do legislator
preferences, interest groups, and public pressure affect whether lawmakers are incentivized to
engage in proactive regulation or to continue the current path of narrow, reactive measures? I
argue that the pace of technological change and the place of government as the direct consumer
of AI provide sizable regulatory hurdles. As a result, I hypothesize on the importance of the role
of outside influences in driving regulation of government use of AI systems. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Laurel Harbridge-Yong

Abstract: I have so many people to thank from this process. Obviously, my advisor, Dr. Jaime Dominguez was a massive help in refining my topic and reassuring me that I was on the right track even when I felt I was nowhere near it. Dr. Galvin was also incredibly helpful and provided some much-needed direction when I was at a difficult crossroads. I owe perhaps the largest thank you to my TA, Jeremy Levy who answered every question I had, no matter how insignificant or ridiculous and without whom this thesis would have no chance of existing. I also owe a large thank you to former Director of Speechwriting for President Obama, Cody Keenan. Discussing this topic during his office hours, for a class I was not even a part of, helped me lay the foundation for what would eventually become this project. His willingness to also talk with me on the phone despite being on paternity leave was truly above and beyond. I also must thank my friends and family for putting up with my neurotic self during these past few months. I could never have done it without you all.  

Thesis Advisor: Professor Julie Lee Merseth 

Abstract: I have so many people to thank from this process. Obviously, my advisor, Dr. Jaime Dominguez was a massive help in refining my topic and reassuring me that I was on the right track even when I felt I was nowhere near it. Dr. Galvin was also incredibly helpful and provided some much-needed direction when I was at a difficult crossroads. I owe perhaps the largest thank you to my TA, Jeremy Levy who answered every question I had, no matter how insignificant or ridiculous and without whom this thesis would have no chance of existing. I also owe a large thank you to former Director of Speechwriting for President Obama, Cody Keenan. Discussing this topic during his office hours, for a class I was not even a part of, helped me lay the foundation for what would eventually become this project. His willingness to also talk with me on the phone despite being on paternity leave was truly above and beyond. I also must thank my friends and family for putting up with my neurotic self during these past few months. I could never have done it without you all.  

Thesis Advisor: Dr. Jaime Dominguez

Thesis Advisor: Professor Sara Monoson and Kimberly Yuracko

Abstract: In March 2018, President Donald Trump acted to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Not all firms have to pay tariffs though. American companies can receive tariff exclusions by
applying for them at the Department of Commerce. Using a unique dataset containing tariff
exclusion request decisions made between March 2018 and June 2019, I study how the political
affiliation of American firms may impact their ability to secure tariff exclusions from the
Department of Commerce and examine how increasing partisanship in the United States has
impacted bureaucratic decision-making with respect to individual American firms. The results of
data analysis suggest that the Trump Administration and the Department of Commerce favored
American firms with no partisan political affiliation as well as firms affiliated with the
Democratic Party when making decisions to grant or deny tariff exclusion requests. In addition,
the Department of Commerce was more likely to grant tariff exclusions submitted by smaller
Republican-affiliated firms, larger Democratic-affiliated firms, and smaller firms with neither
affiliation. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Stephen Nelson

Abstract: Over the last decade, researchers have paid increasing attention to the phenomenon of
foreign entrepreneurs opening micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Kenya.
Existing research on this subject has found that these foreign-owned firms often outcompete their
Kenyan counterparts and that the interactions between these two groups tend to be tenuous. This
research adds to the existing literature by taking a micro-level approach to understanding the
outcomes of interactions between Kenyan and foreign-owned MSMEs, through an original large-N survey and interviews with Kenyan businessowners, union leaders, and a government official.
The analysis of these data has resulted in several key conclusions: that the possession of
proprietary assets by Kenyan firms provides them leverage in bargaining with their foreign-owned counterparts, that the extent of collective action established between Kenyan firms in a
given industry can grant them an advantageous bargaining position in inter-firm negotiations,
that the degree of legal codification of inter-firm arrangements can provide incentives for a given
party (the foreign firm is examined here) to defect from an agreement or not, and that Sino-Kenyan business relations in particular are shaped by existing understandings of inter-firm trust
and Chinese cultural mores, as well as the existence of an oft prohibitive language barrier. These
conclusions yield multiple implications, namely that greater unionization within the MSME
sector in Kenya can benefit domestic business, legal education could reinforce partnerships and
increase institutional trust, a more robust language education system in Kenya can reduce friction
in inter-firm interactions, and more realistic depictions of inter-firm interactions in Kenya can
increase relational trust between the studied groups.

Thesis Advisor: Dr. William Reno

Abstract: For most of the 20th and 21st centuries, political scientists studied Chicago politics due to its powerful and infamous political machine. Due to the dominance of the machine, students and observers of Chicago politics often failed to notice the current of cohesive anti-machine politics slowly developing in opposition to the long-tenured machine mayors. This thesis gives a comprehensive account of the development of anti-machine politics from 1955 to present, studying both winning and losing anti-machine mayoral candidates, and providing a new framework for analyzing differences in machine platforms. Through a layered understanding of political development, this thesis shows how anti-machine politics has changed over time, leading to three main categories of ideology – reform, progressivism, and qualified progressivism. 

Thesis Advisor: Professor Daniel Galvin

Abstract: In 2020, the United States and world was impacted greatly by the COVID-19 Pandemic. In response to the pandemic, several state governments created rules and regulations to limit travel and necessitate mask wearing and social distancing for the summer and into the fall. As a result, many right-wing groups began to protest these executive orders and regulations at state capitols, federal buildings, and public spaces. In May of 2020, the murder of George Floyd sparked the largest civil rights protest movement in American history. Many communities began to question their role in policing, and many protests, although peaceful, were met with seemingly arbitrary state-sanctioned violence. Through the use of a multinomial logarithmic regression model, this thesis finds that protest ideology has a significant impact on how state agencies respond to a given demonstration. Notably, the size of the protest does not heavily determine the given outcome of a protest.   

Thesis Advisor: Professor Reuel Rogers

Abstract: The focus of U.S. foreign policy is shifting. Large troop deployments to combat terrorism have been eschewed in favor of limited interventions, using targeted killing strategies to debilitate enemies. In both the Obama and Trump administrations, drone strikes have been a cornerstone of the country’s counter-terrorism tactics. Prior research has attempted to assess the impact of the drone program on a terrorist organization’s subsequent attack frequency and lethality. This study uses a multi-method approach, comprised of quantitative regression analyses and a case study of AQAP (Yemen) in 2012, to assess how terrorist organizations adapt and react to drone campaigns. A dataset of 175 organization-country-year observations was constructed to identify the possible relationship between a drone campaign and a terrorist organization’s tactical diversity. I find that drone campaigns can, at first, cause terrorist organizations to increase the number of tactics employed in a given year and the number of different target-types attacked in a given year, and this effect is driven by terrorists seeking to manage risk and improve their strategic position in conflicts against local governments. Once a terrorist organization has experienced a significant number of drone strikes, a drone campaign may have a debilitative effect; tactical diversity should decrease so long as counter-terrorists or local governments can maintain effective control over territories. Drone strikes may be an effective counter-terrorism tool under limited conditions, which are largely driven by local state capacity and legitimacy. Policymakers should carefully weigh the impact of drone strikes, their civilian casualties, and the broader U.S. counter-terrorism strategy when deciding whether drone strikes are an apt tool.

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: In 1991, Anita Hill entered the public spotlight when she accused then Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment. In 2018, history repeated, with Christine Blasey Ford accusing then Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault. These two cases, 27 years apart, are the only two Supreme Court confirmation hearings to feature the testimony of survivors of sexual violence. Despite the decades that passed between the two, the results of the hearings were the same – Thomas and Kavanaugh are both currently sitting on the United States Supreme Court. This thesis will examine how the cultural climate around sexual violence impacted United States senators' interviewing of survivors by identifying the prevalence of victim blaming in the senators’ questions and statements through a content analysis of the confirmation hearing transcripts. The results of this analysis suggest a decrease in the prevalence of victim blaming from 1991 to 2018, specifically along political party lines, with the proportion of victim blaming from Democrats decreasing significantly between both cases. There is also an increase in victim blaming opposition. These results are explained by a shift in the American cultural climate toward greater awareness of and support for sexual violence survivorship in the 27-year span between cases. The findings also raise implications about the role of optics vs. sincerity and the impact of increased gender and racial/ethnic diversity in the Senate.

Thesis Advisor: Traci Burch

Abstract: When considering the lack of expansive gun control legislation at the federal level in the United States, many blame the influence of the National Rifle Association (NRA) both on elections and on the behavior of members of Congress. Much research studies the effect of NRA lobbying and mobilization efforts on elections, but virtually no research examines the effect of the NRA on legislative outcomes. It is important to study the NRA’s influence in Congress to help explain the lack of federal gun control legislation and the influence of interest groups in Congress. This paper combines quantitative and qualitative analysis to analyze how NRA lobbying and mobilization efforts affect the proposal of gun-related legislation in Congress between the 102nd and 115th Congresses. The quantitative aspect relies on an original dataset that compiles all federal gun-related legislation between 1991 and 2018 and datasets that cover various NRA expenditures. The qualitative aspect uses case studies of the Columbine, Virginia Tech, and Sandy Hook shootings to examine the responses of the NRA and Congress to each event. The quantitative results of this analysis indicate a weak relationship between NRA spending and gun related bill proposals in Congress. The qualitative results provide evidence that proposals of gun control legislation decrease markedly following instances of significant NRA mobilization efforts. This research suggests that NRA spending has weak influence on the proposal of legislation and provides new insights into a previously under-researched dimension of NRA power: the NRA mobilizes its membership base to keep gun control legislation off the Congressional agenda altogether.

Thesis Advisor: Mary McGrath

Abstract: The strategy of ethnic replacement has been used in ethnic conflict for thousands of years, as one civilization replaces another. Under the contemporary international order that began in 1945, however, such practices are banned under certain circumstances. However, such practices continue to happen in other cases not covered by international law, such as when ethnic conflict occurs within the boundaries of a state. How do hegemonic states react in these situations? To answer this question, this study builds on theories of intervention in ethnic conflict, and posits that hegemonic powers will only intervene unless they have a potential strategic interest at stake. This hypothesis will be tested through an examination of the American support for Kurdish militants before and during the Second Kurdish Uprising of 1974-1975. This case study shows that the Americans (i.e., the global hegemon) were more concerned with the security implications of their intervention than the ethnic replacement practices that were occurring, thereby supporting the initial hypothesis. 

Thesis Advisor: Galya Ben-Arieh

Abstract: The number of students with disabilities in higher education has risen exponentially over the last 50 years as legislation (Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990) demanded that collegiate environments be made more accessible, largely through the provision of accommodations. In this study, I examine the disability accommodation decision-making process in higher education through a large-scale survey experiment with staff who work in disability services in U.S. colleges. I find evidence of racial bias, as well as disability specific bias – against those with ADHD. These biases appear in attitudes and expectations for the application process, but not when it comes to the provision of specific accommodations. Perhaps most importantly, I also show that the biases can be countered by correcting unconscious stereotypes about work ethic and/or through racial implicit bias training courses. The results thus have actionable implications for moving towards a more equitable allocation of disability services. 

Thesis Advisor: James N. Druckman

Abstract: In the early 1990s, after litigation in the Supreme Court began to allow for more restrictive abortion laws in states to be passed, Kansas saw an influx of new abortion activism and legislation. Anti-abortion activists quickly became entrenched in Kansas politics. These activists
encouraged people to run for office up-and-down the state ballot. These new politicians won in certain races, and they replaced Democrats and relatively moderate Republicans. Over time, these activists became a dominant force in the Kansas Republican Party, and by the end of the 1990s, the party was notably more conservative. While the circumstances and characters of this story are unique to Kansas, and constituted a “perfect storm” of litigation, activism, and legislative change, this sort of political polarization was seen in other states and in the national parties as well. A close examination of the critical moment of party change in the 1990s can help
shed light on analogous changes in other contexts.

Thesis Advisors: Thomas K. Ogorzalek and Joanna Grisinger

Abstract: In the spring and fall of 2016, four states decided to withdraw from the United States Refugee Resettlement Program. This study set out to determine what differentiated a state that withdrew from one that did not by conducting a comparative analysis between Kansas and Iowa; Kansas left the program in April 2016 while Iowa still participates. Previous studies report that states’ largest grievance with the program lies in their communities’ inability to support refugees upon arrival. Yet, I found that this is not what differentiated Kansas and Iowa, as communities in both states reported feeling similarly strained from the resettlement process. Rather, it was their citizens’ differing levels of expressed public support for refugees in light of these strains that set the two apart. In Kansas, refugees’ needs were portrayed as an exacerbation of the state’s existing problems, while in Iowa, citizens were mobilizing to provide for refugees where other services were falling short. I ultimately argue that Kansas’s lower levels of expressed public support for refugees led to the Governor’s decision to withdraw in 2016. These findings suggest that states’ participation in refugee resettlement is more nuanced than is currently being discussed. It is not solely determined by their towns’ fiscal and structural capabilities, but maybe even moreso by residents’ perception of refugees and their eagerness to support them. 

Thesis Advisor: Galya Ben-Arieh

Abstract: How are Indigenous Peoples (IP) represented in global environmental governance (GEG), both by themselves and by nation-state actors? Specifically, I ask what kind of narratives shape the representation of Indigenous Peoples at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference and with what impact. Also known as the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) or the Paris Climate Conference, the event revitalized commitments to combatting global climate change and culminated with the landmark Paris Agreement, which notably calls on nation-states to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs). By analyzing the narratives used to represent Indigenous Peoples at this conference, this paper seeks to motivate greater recognition and analysis of both the highly visible and less visible forms of indigenous representation to complicate the limited, often unidirectional narratives that exist in the GEG literature. Indigenous Peoples have taken bold and consistent steps to make their voices heard in GEG, especially on rights and terrestrial biodiversity protection. 

Thesis Advisor: Kim Suiseeya

Abstract: This study evaluates the extent to which political uncertainty is a cause of peso-dollar movement in 2018, a year in which the peso weakened nearly two-fold against the dollar. I create an index of political uncertainty by measuring the frequency of keywords in two leading Argentine newspapers, La Nación and Clarín, and regress intraday price movement of the peso dollar on my index of political uncertainty. The model suggests that political uncertainty contributes significantly to peso movement, accounting for 17% of intraday price movement in 2018. However, the model relies on two key understandings. One, lagging the uncertainty index’s time series by one day doubles the strength of the overall relationship. Two, filtering for outliers in peso movement highlights the model’s effectiveness in predicting smaller (<3.4%) jumps in the peso’s value. In short, the model is better fitted to explain range-bound peso movement, whereas larger (>3.4%) changes in the peso’s price can be explained more accurately by discrete political “shock” events.

Thesis Advisor: John Bullock 

Abstract: Climate change presents a serious threat to humanity, and its impacts will be felt for generations to come. As global temperatures continue to increase, the need to act on climate change becomes more urgent. Efforts to combat climate change face a major obstacle: deniers and skeptics. This study uses a survey experiment to better understand how motivated reasoning can bolster the persuasive effects of targeted climate change messaging. The results of this
survey suggest that social norms play a significant role in attitude formation and behavioral intentions. Norms seem to be more important than values and information. Survey results also show that the path from believing climate change is a real phenomenon to supporting government action against climate change may not be straightforward.

Thesis Advisor: James Druckman

Abstract: While an extensive base of literature has investigated the relationship between populism and contestation in the region of Latin America, there is a gap in our understanding of the relationship between populism and inclusion. This study seeks to fill this gap by employing a mixed-method approach to uncover the direction of this relationship and the causal processes that structure it. Combining longitudinal data from 20 Latin American countries with an in-depth case analysis of
Bolivian populism, I find robust evidence of a positive relationship between populism and inclusion at the aggregate level, and in the Bolivian case, I demonstrate that civil society
organizations and direct democracy initiatives are the tools of choice for incorporating popular participation into the policy-making process.

Thesis Advisor: James Mahoney

Abstract: The political nature of insurgencies inverts Clausewitz’s famous truism; politics is war by other means. Nevertheless, counterinsurgent military forces from Algeria to Iraq have ignored the political nature of insurgencies with disastrous consequences, and the academic literature on counterinsurgency similarly ignores the political preferences of populations in low-intensity conflict environments. Individuals’ exposure to relevant information through the form of public relations campaigns, and their emotional responses to that information, alters their political preferences. A model for how public relations impact individuals’ beliefs in low-intensity conflict environments is thus proposed, and that model is subsequently tested against the case of the first seven months following the American invasion of Iraq. More effectively managing political preferences through non-military action has potential to vastly improve counterinsurgency policy. Implications for counterinsurgency policy and national preparedness are then briefly explored. 

Thesis Advisor: Marina Henke

Abstract: The media dictates the way we communicate, receive information, and interact with one another, but what explains media framing of issues? Media framing is the specific process used by the media to define and construct a political issue. This thesis posits that cultural context, the environment in which individuals learn to feel, act, behave, and interact, dictates media framing. Through a single case study of gun control in Israel, this thesis examines two different frames, security and domestic violence, and their salience in framing. It uses quantitative and qualitative analysis of 126 articles from seven Israeli news sources in both English and Hebrew. The results communicate that cultural context does dictate media framing because of the dominance of the security frame in the media analysis. Cultural context, however, is not static and changes as countries grow and transform as well. The implications of this argument include the potential for an increase in the power of the media in influencing thoughts, opinions, and actions on political issue. 

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: If a self-sustaining local government returns democracy to the people and increases civilians’ socio-economic livelihoods, can cities take actions which increase their local autonomy? I study this question through field interviews with current and former elected officials to understand how two Ecuadorian cities – Quito and Cotacachi – remained subordinate or became autonomous in relation to the state from 1992 to 2007. Based on my findings, I assert that the level of strength of a national government affects the nationwide variation between cities’ levels of local autonomy. Additionally, I claim that new, local political leaders may be a sufficient condition for local autonomy within the context of a weak national government. When a weak national government exists, cities attain the ability to take matters into their own hands. Further, unestablished local leaders may not have the same clientelist burdens as machine politicians, providing new elected officials with the flexibility to implement policies which lead to local autonomy.

Thesis Advisor: Hendrik Spruyt

Abstract: For decades, legal advocates have fought in both the judicial and legislative arenas to protect the best interests of children in detention. Despite their efforts to halt unnecessary child detention, the rates continue to increase. With these rates in mind, I raise my first question: why has child detention increased? Considering the role of lawyering and legal advocacy plays in policymaking, I pose my second question: How was the increase possible despite the enactment of policy protections for the best interests of unaccompanied minors? Current public debate about child detention has focused primarily on the actions of the Trump administration, assuming this problem originated in 2017. Through my analysis, I show that the origins of child detention pre-date the Trump administration and are related to the reframing of immigration as a national security issue following the tragedies of September 11th, 2001.

Thesis Advisor: Galya Ben-Arieh

Abstract: My paper investigates the impact of stop question frisk (SQF) policing on political participation in Chicago, IL. My results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between rates of SQF policing and political participation. Specifically, I outline the relationships between SQF rates and the volume of 311 calling and voter turnout in the 2016 presidential election. I present correlations between SQF metrics and these two measures of political participation. I also look at the relationship between SQF intensity and candidate choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Finally, I include visualizations of SQF rates, political participation, and key racial demographics to depict trends concentrated in particular parts of Chicago. Many studies, using data from New York City, have explored the racial discrimination and lack of efficacy of SQF policing. However, the impact of Chicago SQF policing on how citizens perceive political leaders has not been characterized. It is important to understand the broad impacts of SQF policing in order to set appropriate policy and adequately direct outreach efforts towards high-SQF communities. The results from my research can help shed some light on these broad impacts and can help provide context for observed discrepancies in political participation. 

Research Advisor: Tabitha Bonilla

Abstract: Redistricting is a widely contested issue in modern American political dialogue. Advocates decry the negative impact strategic redistricting has on electoral outcomes and clamor for institutional reforms, such as independent commissions. While current research heavily highlights the partisan implications of redistricting, there has been little focus on the other potential impacts of redistricting on electoral outcomes. This work will examine one such electoral outcome: the creation of an artificial incumbency advantage, or an incumbency advantage that arises because of strategic redistricting. Using an innovative methodology, this study seeks to demonstrate that legislators in bipartisan redistricting schemes create an artificial incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections by drawing maps that protect incumbent legislators. Through the exploration of thousands of precinct-level election returns in the 2012 general election, the study concludes that bipartisan redistricting schemes exhibit a significantly higher incumbency advantage than their partisan or independent counterparts. In light of these conclusions, the study suggests that implementing independent commissions across the country would likely be successful not only in mitigating the partisan impacts of redistricting but also in mitigating the artificial incumbency advantage. 

Thesis Advisor: Laurel Harbridge-Yong

Abstract: The Democratic Party has maintained a lethargy in eliminating the institutional barriers preventing upward, black socioeconomic mobility. Knowing that a history of discrimination prevents most black voters from defecting to the Republican Party, the Democrats maintain a near-monopoly over black votes without having to actively appeal to black demands. One Democratic faction, however, presents a solution to this political disenfranchisement: black progressives. Representing black voters in a way unmatched and pursuing policies that are notably further left of center than party norms, black progressives present a unique challenge that disrupts the Democratic Party’s capture of black votes. Utilizing a qual-descriptive and historical approach to examine selected case studies, my project tracks the effect black progressives have had on the Democratic Party’s agenda at different times throughout history—seeking to answer if and how black progressives have moved the party further to the left and what this means for the future of the two-party system.

Thesis Advisor: Reuel Rogers

Abstract: Since becoming the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping has emerged as one of the most powerful leaders in the world. One of his most essential domestic policies is his large-scale Anti-Corruption Campaign. From December 2012 to August 2018, 218 high-level Chinese officials were investigated and removed from their respective positions. Even though Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that his campaign serves to eliminate widespread corruption within the Party, many observers suspect that his campaign is more about eliminating political opponents and consolidating his power within the Party. This research project examines the purpose of Xi Jinping’s campaign. A typology is used to categorize Chinese campaigns, which compares Xi Jinping’s campaign to previous campaigns. This project also collects data regarding the high-level Chinese officials who were investigated during Xi Jinping’s leadership period and compares them to corruption cases in previous leadership periods. Through a typology, statistical analysis, and case comparisons, this project argues that Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Campaign is a power/signal-driven campaign: its aim is not to punish corrupt officials, but for Xi Jinping to grasp more power within the Party. 

Thesis Advisor: William Hurst

Abstract: What is the effect of hydraulic fracturing on local politics? I set out to study the impact of fracking on community-level politics because fracking’s local effects are often overlooked compared to its effect on the environment and energy markets. My work attempts to solve this puzzling question by analyzing if fracking causes an increase or decrease in political corruption and political participation. In so doing, I carry out a case study on the community surrounding Williamsport, a city in rural Pennsylvania affected by fracking. To analyze fracking’s effect on political corruption, I run regression analyses to examine whether the amount of money state-legislators receive from the natural gas lobby influences state-legislatures’ votes on natural gas legislation. To examine its impact on political participation, I carry out a difference-in-difference analysis to compare voter turnout rates in districts with fracking to districts without fracking. I also conduct interviews with people in Williamsport to study fracking’s nuanced effects on both political corruption and political participation. In all, I find that fracking causes an increase in political corruption, a decrease in formal political participation, and an increase in informal political participation.

Thesis Advisor: Kimberly Suiseeya

Abstract: This study examined how U.S. newspapers portrayed Black Lives Matter protests in 2014 after the police killing of Michael Brown, an unarmed black teen in Ferguson, Missouri, and after the non-indictment of Darren Wilson, the police officer implicated in Brown’s death. Through content and textual analysis of five nationally distributed newspapers and all local Missouri papers, this study had four major findings. 1) When reporting about BLM protests, both national and local newspapers used the “protest paradigm,” a media pattern of portraying protests negatively. 2) National newspaper articles adhered to the protest paradigm more than local newspapers. 3) Use of the protest paradigm increased over time for both local and national newspapers. 4) Over time, national newspapers included fewer quotes from protestors, but local newspapers increased their inclusion of protestors’ quotes. Thus, through the examination of the protest paradigm in newspapers’ portrayals of BLM protests in 2014 this paper contributes to broadening our understanding of media frames of protests and protestors. 

Thesis Advisor: Reuel Rogers

Abstract: This study attempts to determine the preferences of French billionaires on the level of taxation. Knowledge of such preferences appears increasingly important given trends of increasing global economic and political inequality. Numerous studies have attempted to gain an understanding of the role that economic elites hold in policymaking, both in the U.S. and abroad, and it is generally found that the affluent hold outsized influence in the political arena. This is concerning if one values equal political representation among citizens and heightens the urgency of discerning the preferences of these powerful individuals. This study focuses on tax-related public statements made by the twenty wealthiest French billionaires. Methodologically, this study replicates the work of Page et al. (2015), which focuses on the wealthiest 100 Americans and finds a general lack of public statements regarding taxes and social security. A few individuals were found to be more outspoken; some had conservative preferences while others had more liberal preferences. The French study was similarly scrupulous, but still yielded a surprising lack of statements on taxes, with a couple glaring exceptions. The directional statements that were found in the French context were almost all in favor of lower taxes. This study also examined the factors that affect French billionaires’ preferences on the level of taxation and their propensity to make public statements in general. The initial findings are as follows: among French billionaires, a smaller net worth, the ownership of a consumer facing business, and inherited wealth were associated with less outspokenness regarding taxes. Generally, as compared to the U.S., French billionaires were more likely to favor lower taxes and were slightly less outspoken about their opinions. These differences can be attributed to the following characteristics of French society: a relatively high French tax-to-GDP ratio; the acute centralization of French social, economic, and political life; uniform elite education; the existence of public relations specialists and the currying of journalistic favors; and the closeness between the private and public spheres. These characteristics make it so that French elites operate in closely-knit circles and attain informal influence, encounter similar educational experiences, and likely feel quite safe in their privileged positions. The apparent reticence of French billionaires is concerning insofar as it is a symptom of the use of behind-the-scenes influence in lieu of public statements meant to sway politicians and the public. Given the closely-knit circles in which French elites operate, it takes little effort to imagine that economic elites can cultivate influence in order to control policy outcomes instead of resorting to possibly controversial public statements. This influence was manifested in the government’s handling of the 2008 banking crisis in France, for example. 

Thesis Advisors: Chloe Thurston and Andrew Roberts

Abstract: Following her loss in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton came under fire from political pundits who attributed her defeat to a failure to visit key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Did Secretary Clinton’s strategy on the ground cost her the election? This thesis investigates the electoral effects of campaign visits by Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Gary Johnson and identifies if visits to a county during the 2016 Presidential Election increased a candidate’s share of the vote in that county. The analysis is based on an original dataset of all visits by the major candidates between September 1st and Election Day 2016, disaggregated by the county level. A series of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models provide a foundation for analysis, while a Nearest Neighbor matching model provides a robustness check. The results imply that Secretary Clinton’s visits in the later part of the campaign had a positive effect on her vote share in places she visited, while no significant effect was observed for Trump or Johnson. To this extent, the pundits’ criticism appears to have been well founded.  Given the incredibly large amount of limited resources that presidential candidates dedicate to holding such campaign stops, this research shows that campaign visits can be well worth the investment, depending on the candidate. 

Thesis Advisor: Mary McGrath 

Abstract: This project identifies certain trends that lead to higher rates of reporting of sexual assaults on college campuses, using the timing of the 2011 Department of Education Dear Colleague Letter about Title IX as a springboard. Recent studies indicate that at least 20 percent of women and 5 percent of men are sexually assaulted during college. However, the number of students reporting these assaults to universities is drastically lower. Thus, the driving question behind this project investigates the relationship between formal Title IX policies, campus culture, and reported sexual assaults, and what factors explain the differences in reported sexual assaults across universities. Using a multi-methodological approach through statistical analysis and in-depth case studies, this paper identifies three characteristics that have an interesting relationship with the rate a which students report sexual assaults: elite status, Greek Life, and compliance with the Dear Colleague Letter mentioned above. Key findings indicate that campus climate surveys surrounding sexual assault, high levels of student activism about sexual assault awareness, and changes in sexual assault education pieces lead to higher rates of reporting of sexual assaults on college campuses. Important policy recommendations urge schools across the country to do the following: allow for student activism, understand sexual assault on campus through surveys, and ensure students receive effective sexual assault education. 

Thesis Advisor: Laura Beth Nielsen

Abstract: Since the formation of the EEC and ECSC, Europe has been on a long-term trajectory to further integration. Now for the first time in 50 years, we see a grave reversal. The continent has witnessed the rise of growing regional variance, Euroscepticism, and populist political entrepreneurs. What explains increasing political dissonance despite interdependence? Are there differences in how integration has affected the Rhenish and Anglo-Saxon models of capitalism? Have states failed their respective deindustrialized population? In this paper, I develop a quantitative framework to comprehensively grasp the answer to these concerns with special attention to France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Using empirical data, qualitative interviews, scholarly literature, election outcomes, and news articles, I contend that regions which have enjoyed economic growth support European integration. By contrast, regions which have experienced economic stagnation or even decline, evince greater Euroscepticism. I contrast the existence of explanatory variables in the case of Germany to the case of the UK to defend the claim that the Rhenish capitalist state is more resilient to Euroscepticism than its Anglo-Saxon peer. Finally, I make an assessment about the fragile future of the European project. In short, regional economic hardship leads to a higher degree of Euroscepticism. 

Thesis Advisor: Hendrik Spruyt

Abstract: This thesis seeks to understand how Colombia was able to create a robust set of feminist laws despite its conservative Catholic culture. In order to understand why that is, this paper takes a deep dive into two specific cases involving facets of the Colombian women’s movement: the abortion decriminalization of 2006, which was decided by the Constitutional Court, and the creation of a law outlawing violence against women, passed through Congress in 2008. I find that contributing factors to the creation of feminist law in a conservative context are the political opportunities that emerge and the mobilizing structures that come together to take advantage of those opportunities. I find that once those factors are in place, women must then deploy a meticulously planned strategy in order to convince as many decision makers as possible to support the feminist law. The catalyzing key to feminist success in a conservative context is strategic framing, even if that framing means conceding messaging points in order to appeal to a more moderate group of decision makers. 

Thesis Advisor: Ana Arjona

Abstract: Over the past decade, the United States has seen a wave of restrictive voting laws unprecedented since the passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965. This project uses a survival analysis technique combined with case studies to examine restrictive voting laws passed since 2001 in order to understand what factors triggered this wave and determine today which states successfully restrict the vote. The results offer evidence that Republican lawmakers adopt restrictions quickly and consistently upon gaining power, with adoption most probable in the year immediately following a switch to Republican legislative control. Anxiety surrounding electoral integrity in the wake of the 2000 election enabled bipartisan support to spark the first modern restrictions, preceding a conservative push toward stricter, more strategic laws. These findings affirm that contemporary voting rights restrictions are a highly strategic and almost exclusively Republican maneuver. In order to protect voting rights going forward, advocates can focus on creating pressure via public opinion and electoral consequences, while shifting the argument toward voting reforms that place the burden of democratic integrity upon government, rather than citizens.

Thesis Advisor: Laurel Harbridge-Yong

Abstract: In recent years, the “Fight for $15” minimum wage movement has achieved considerable publicity in their campaign to organize fast food workers into a union and raise the minimum wage to $15 across the country. While the decline of union and labor power is well-documented in the literature (Dixon, 2014), Fight for $15 – as a site of a remarkable success for labor – is yet to be fully investigated. Relying on political mediation theory of social movements (Amenta, Caren, Chiarello, & Su, 2010; Amenta, Caren, & Olasky, 2005; Soule & Olzak, 2004), this thesis explores the reasons why Fight for $15 may have been successful in raising wages in the states of California and New York. Drawing from interviews conducted with movement activists across three states in addition to detailed analyses of media accounts, this paper demonstrates that the movement’s success is positively influenced by a combination of three factors: high public opinion, support from political elites, and the presence of political structures that the movement can manipulate (like ballot initiatives). Ultimately, this study contributes to the scholarly understanding of how to best respond to politically-driven income inequality (Gilens & Page, 2014; Piketty & Saez, 2014; Winters, 2011), while also exploring how social movements and disruptive protest succeed. 

Thesis Advisor: Chloe Thurston

Abstract: The gay rights movement is one of the major social changes of the last twenty years, drawing comparisons to the movements for women and African Americans in the 1960’s. Changes in laws enacted by the legislature and the judiciary followed a massive shift in public opinion on gay issues, most notably marriage. This paper utilizes an experimental method to determine which of three arguments, focusing on a biological basis for homosexuality, a small government model and the number of gays in the population, is most persuasive on the whole and is most persuasive to different populations. The results of this method suggest that each argument is at least somewhat persuasive to groups already inclined to support gay rights, meaning they likely played a role in previous public opinion change but that groups that are known to be resistant to this social chance cannot be persuaded by these arguments. Analysis of correlations and regressions generated from World Values Survey data is then utilized to determine the impact of belief in science on support for gay rights in order to determine if results about the role of biology in support for gay rights could be generalized on a global scale. The analysis of this data suggests that this relationship is strongest in the United States and is minimal in many areas outside of the West.

Thesis Advisor: Reul Rogers

Abstract: Many theories attempt to explain the reasons for the likelihood of a mass group of individuals to take risks and join armed insurrections. Even with the prevalence and increased attention to nonviolent uprisings, existing research has produced few theories and empirical tests that explain variations in frequency of these campaigns or an explanation for the onset of nonviolent versus violent campaigns. I find that nontax revenue sources generally increase the likelihood of the onset of resistance campaigns that are primarily violent and decrease the likelihood of nonviolent campaigns. Conversely, tax revenue lowers the likelihood of the onset of violent campaigns, and at the same time, I do not find evidence for the claim that tax revenue increases the total number of protests. 

Thesis Advisor: Daniel Kremaric

Abstract: From approximately 1895-1937, the US Supreme Court interpreted the Constitution’s Due Process clauses to implicitly protect a “Liberty of Contract”—the right of individuals to make contracts without arbitrary government interference. The Court relied on this principle to invalidate a variety of regulatory measures, including maximum hours and minimum wage laws. The Court abandoned its enforcement of this doctrine in 1937, and today, the Liberty of Contract is widely condemned by legal thinkers as right-wing judicial activism. Supposedly, the Court’s protection of contractual freedom imposed a strict laissez-faire ideology on the country, interfered with Progressive reform legislation, and harmed public welfare—especially that of workers, consumers, and the poor. But such claims are often made without empirical support. My aim here is to evaluate, based on the surviving data and evidence, the practical impacts of the Liberty of Contract by examining a) the extent to which the doctrine interfered with policymakers’ efforts at economic regulation, and b) the economic and social effects of notable decisions in which the Court invalidated legislation on Liberty-of-Contract grounds. I conclude a) that the Court was quite deferential to legislators in Liberty-of-Contract cases, though its decisions to invoke the doctrine in invalidating laws were often arbitrary; and b) that the societal effects of such invalidations were often either neutral or positive. 

Thesis Advisor: Daniel Galvin

Abstract: In the past decade, there has been a widespread resurgence in restrictive voting legislation at the state level, but what explains this trend? In this paper, I examine the introduction and passage of restrictive voting legislation between 2005 and 2016 using two categories of explanations: demographic behavior and political composition. Using multiple regression techniques, I analyze the conditions that contribute to both the proposal and the adoption of restrictive legislation. I find that the most significant predictor of the passage of restrictive legislation across all models is the percentage of the state legislature composed of the GOP, a measure of partisanship. However, particularly for the introduction of legislation, there is evidence that the voting behavior of minority groups contributes to the presence of restrictions. This analysis provides robust support to theories of strategic disenfranchisement, and indicates that current restrictions are a product of partisan calculations.

Thesis Advisor: Traci Burch

Abstract: The purpose of this paper was to examine the affiliation motivations of groups that publicly declare their support for al-Qaeda and are reciprocated by al-Qaeda. Groups are logical actors that use a rational decision-making process to assess the costs and benefits of affiliation. The main argument presented is that survival, international responses to groups’ affiliations with al-Qaeda, ideological alignment, and power-plays within an organization are the main variables that groups consider when deciding whether to affiliate with al-Qaeda. Process tracing and structured-focused comparison are used to examine four cases of affiliation, and two additional negative cases. The evidence examined is data from government reports, scholarly research, and other data about the status of the groups at the time of affiliation or before it. Considerations for further research and policy implications are discussed.

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: Scholars have described the history of freedom of information (FOI) law and its policy implications in countries worldwide, but how courts adjudicate these cases is less well-studied. In FOI court cases, judges are often asked to weigh privacy rights against the public interest to determine whether information should be disclosed. The philosophical and legal principles behind this balancing exercise suggest that the public interest is considered more as a “want” than a “right.” These conceptions of privacy and the public interest manifest depend on whether these terms are present in the law and whether they are specifically defined. To analyze how the balance is executed, I examine FOI public interest cases heard by the US Supreme Court (USSC) and the UK Supreme Court (UKSC) and analyze the factors that influence their decision-making. I find that both courts engage in “tactical balancing” in that they weigh a variety of considerations and recognize justifiable claims on both sides of the balance. Yet this process is uncertain and shows how both courts frequently rely on legislative intent and purpose to add legitimacy to their decision-making. Additional relevant factors influencing Supreme Court decision-making cause the USSC to treat the public interest more as a “want” while the UKSC treats it more as a “right.” Discussing the public interest in terms of rights, therefore, would contribute legitimacy to these claims and re-center the purpose of freedom of information around the right to know. 

Thesis Advisor: Jacqueline Stevens 

Abstract: Lobbying has always existed within United States politics, but it was not until the 20th century that it became a major part of national politics rather than state politics. It was in this era that lobbying efforts made directly to Congress became a fully legal and regulated activity in US politics. It became a method by which people, corporations, unions, and other structured organizations were able to have their issues addressed through new legislation or express their opinions about already proposed legislation. Unsurprisingly, soon thereafter many began to question whether lobbying had a disproportionally greater effect on Congressional decision making and the legislative process than the more traditional democratic processes. As such, scholars have debated whether lobbying affects policy outcomes, buys access to legislators, or has other consequences. This thesis joins these debates by examining whether money spent on lobbying (for a particular issue area) affects the attention to that issue in Congress, by the public, and in the media. 

Thesis Advisor: Lauren Harbridge

Abstract: Why do groups align in their political contestation in some periods but not in others? Singapore has witnessed a complex and constantly shifting social movement trajectory, in which its adults and youths were aligned in the post-independence era but are beginning to diverge in the most recent period. This paper argues that social movement theories are insufficient. Instead, combines Gaventa’s (1982) account of power politics with social movement analysis to better capture and analyze Singapore’s complex trajectory. Contentious politics are thus possible under the relatively equal first or second dimensional power relationships, but they become impossible under the quiescence of a third dimensional power relationship. Social movements are effective channels to improve civil society’s power, but are irrelevant when civil society is quiescent. The alignment of youths and adults therefore result from their balance of power vis-à-vis the state in the various periods.

Thesis Advisor: Jeffrey Winters

Abstract: At least one unarmed black civilian is killed by police every week, and at least one black civilian is killed by police every 48 hours. Some instances of racially biased police brutality lead to protest, such as the cases of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri and Eric Garner in Staten Island, New York. However, most instances of police brutality toward unarmed black civilians do not spark protest; between 2000 and 2014, only 33% of cases involving an unarmed black civilian resulted in protest. Under what conditions do instances of racially biased police brutality toward unarmed black civilians trigger protest? Through statistical analysis of 15 years of racially biased police brutality, this study found that protest in response to these incidents tends to emerge in environments marked by extreme poverty and racial segregation. Explaining this relationship, it argues that protest in response to these incidents is more broadly a response the lack of government concern about institutionalized racism and to black communities living in concentrated poverty, whose political participation has been restricted and who disproportionately face the effects of racist practices.

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: The genocidal characteristic of violence is not a priori or objective; it must be identified and named in order to exist. Post-hoc, a mass killing must have basic, objective features that qualify it as genocide under international law. However, there is a political process that precedes the legal decision. This process occurs during the violence, when humanitarian intervention has the best chance to be most impactful. The decision to label a mass killing as “genocide” or “not genocide” is the genocide distinction. Before the genocide distinction encounters legal reification, the genocide distinction is first politically framed and acknowledged either formally or informally by various actors in the international community. The frame of the genocide distinction is subject to a variety of discourses, or structural conceptualizations of “victimhood,” “perpetrator” and “atrocity.” Due to these discourses, public opinion and states often frame mass killings inaccurately and consequently obfuscate the genocide distinction. A term meant to signal a specific, illegal type of mass killing has turned into a politicized tool to achieve various ends: as a weapon to shame governments, a hurdle to political reconciliation and a term used to frame power-relations. Despite these real effects of contentious nomenclature, there is a strong belief that the “naming game” shouldn’t matter; that the definitional debate takes time away from what otherwise would be a policy debate on intervention and aid. 1 What is at stake is that depending on how we label a problem in politics, simultaneously produces the problem and thus determines how we confront the problem. The naming-game is an opportunity for power to exert itself in the guise of frames.

Thesis Advisor: Ian Hurd

Abstract: This investigation is concerned with the factors that lead local actors to cooperate with, defect from or reject private aid agencies’ stated goals in urban Uganda. I created three separate frameworks to examine my topic. The Corruption Framework argues that when NGOs are rent seeking, resulting in corrupt practices, then defection or rejection occurs. The Structural Framework attributes recipient defection and rejection to misunderstanding by donors of the environment in which recipients live and their interaction with local formal and informal institutions. When programs do not appropriately address recipients’ perceived needs, they will defect or reject. The Bureaucracy Framework argues that donor characteristics, competition, and bureaucracy affect the capacity in which donors interact with recipients, influencing incentives to defect or cooperate. If bureaucracy and inefficiency burden organizations, aid recipients are more likely to defect because organizations lack the capacity to address recipient needs, even if NGO employees adequately understand the environment and needs of the recipients. My findings suggest that although these frameworks work in conjunction at times, the Structural Framework is more prevalent and commonly identified as a primary cause of defection and rejection by respondents. I later identified an intervening variable that does not fit into the original frameworks but also affects defection and rejection rates—disjuncture between Ugandans themselves. A direct result of poor rule of law in the country, lack of trust and poor enforcement mechanisms can hinder otherwise promising programs that do not work well within these constraints. This research also found high numbers of rejections amongst recipients, which need to be investigated further. Identifying what leads to ineffective aid programs on the micro-level will lead to more appropriately tailored solutions for improving aid effectiveness given the environment. 

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: Since 2011 Myanmar has undergone extraordinary political and social change much to the surprise of many observers at home and abroad. This thesis explains why the leaders of the military regime in Burma commenced a political transition and reduced its involvement in politics and the economy in 2011 without being forced to do so. It contends that the regime’s confidence, rather than its fear, in the country’s current social and political arrangement, which is favorable to the position of the military, sets in motion the current phase of limited democratization and political opening in Myanmar. It also explains that the regime embarks the current democratization in 2011 as it is sufficiently strong to control the timing and means of the transition. Hence, the regime made this move not from a position of insecurity, weakness, or capitulation, but rather from a position of confidence, strength and considerable control over its oppositional force. As a consequence, the Burmese military is retreating from power on its own terms and at its own pace while fully controlling the process and garnering international praise as it does so.

Thesis Advisor: Jeffrey Winters

Abstract: Since 2011 Myanmar has undergone extraordinary political and social change much to the surprise of many observers at home and abroad. This thesis explains why the leaders of the military regime in Burma commenced a political transition and reduced its involvement in politics and the economy in 2011 without being forced to do so. It contends that the regime’s confidence, rather than its fear, in the country’s current social and political arrangement, which is favorable to the position of the military, sets in motion the current phase of limited democratization and political opening in Myanmar. It also explains that the regime embarks the current democratization in 2011 as it is sufficiently strong to control the timing and means of the transition. Hence, the regime made this move not from a position of insecurity, weakness, or capitulation, but rather from a position of confidence, strength and considerable control over its oppositional force. As a consequence, the Burmese military is retreating from power on its own terms and at its own pace while fully controlling the process and garnering international praise as it does so.

Thesis Advisor: Jeffrey Winters

Abstract: It is generally assumed that the institution of property rights promotes economic growth through the facilitation foreign investment. Foreign investment is most successful in places where property rights are secure. However, foreign investment is increasing in countries whose property rights systems lack this characteristic. This paper seeks to explain how foreign investment takes place in countries where their ownership is not secure. Through the analysis of four foreign companies investment narratives in Uganda, I determine that foreign investment is increasing because the property rights system is insecure. There is a link between the insecurity of domestic property rights and the ability of foreign investors to invest in the country. This insecurity also facilitates domestic investment. The effects of this are generally detrimental to affected populations. This brings up questions of why governments desire foreign investment if it negatively impacts local communities and if foreign investment is actually good for the country’s economy.

Thesis Advisor: Jordan Ganse-Morse

Abstract: It is generally assumed that the institution of property rights promotes economic growth through the facilitation foreign investment. Foreign investment is most successful in places where property rights are secure. However, foreign investment is increasing in countries whose property rights systems lack this characteristic. This paper seeks to explain how foreign investment takes place in countries where their ownership is not secure. Through the analysis of four foreign companies investment narratives in Uganda, I determine that foreign investment is increasing because the property rights system is insecure. There is a link between the insecurity of domestic property rights and the ability of foreign investors to invest in the country. This insecurity also facilitates domestic investment. The effects of this are generally detrimental to affected populations. This brings up questions of why governments desire foreign investment if it negatively impacts local communities and if foreign investment is actually good for the country’s economy.

Thesis Advisor: Traci Burch

Abstract: Civic and democratic life in the United States appears to be in a state of disorder. Robert Putnam’s well-respected study of American civic life, Bowling Alone, is one set of understandings about our current way of life. Civic leaders across the U.S. are noticing that the wellspring of Americans ready to participate in community affairs is drying up. Putnam argues that a lack of “generalized reciprocity,” the idea that an individual helps another member of the community in the faith that another would do the same, has tempered our interest in democratic and community life. In Putnam’s America, democracy as a process of participation, organization, and transformation has devolved into “merely the advocacy of narrow interests”. And he is not alone in his sentiment. Reports continuously remind us that young members of the polity struggle to articulate their opinions on public affairs, to take responsibility for their local communities, and to volunteer without monetary profit in order to improve the lives of others.6 Part of the problem results from the “delinking of civic engagement from politics”. Associations have fulfilled the key goals of democratic involvement and civic mobilization for much of the U.S.’s history. Yet the most common associations today are professional groups consisting of homogenous memberships and organizing for the purpose of furthering one’s own private life. 

Thesis Advisor: Mary Dietz

Abstract: The basis of representative democracy is that citizens choose political leaders to make decisions on their behalf. By virtually any normative criteria, citizens are presumed to base their attitudes and choices on politically relevant events. Yet, some recent work suggests that citizens may instead rely on criteria completely irrelevant to politics such as the weather or the performance of their favorite sports team. This study moves beyond past work by documenting, for the first time, a direct causal impact of such irrelevant events. Specifically, I present results from a novel experiment that shows how the outcome of a sporting event (the National Collegiate Athletic Association football championship game) substantially shapes individuals emotions which then drive their political assessments. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results for democratic governance. 

Thesis Advisor: James Druckman

Abstract: Beginning in the late 1970s, a wave of democratization swept through Asia, Europe and South America, otherwise called the Third Wave. Democratization drastically changed the political and social environment, and many were optimistic about the positive changes democratization would bring to previously authoritarian countries. One of the expected changes was a decrease in prevalence of corruption in the political sphere. However, the empirical evidence suggests a persistence of corruption, not only in developing economies but also developed countries, where the effects of democratization are thought to be stronger. This paper seeks to understand why democratization in highly developed countries does not necessarily lead to decreased corruption. In addition, it will demonstrate how the type of corruption changes in pre and post-democratization politics in developed countries by looking at whether the political environment is electorally competitive or not, and the number of principals available for corrupt activity. The paper suggests a different perspective from popular corruption literature by focusing on the type and not the level of corruption. It also aims to provide valuable insight into the principal-agent relationship and increased understanding of how to target corruption in democratic, economically developed countries going forward. 

Thesis Advisor: Jordan Gans-Morse

Abstract: Recent waves of democratization and the rise of terrorist groups as important transnational political actors have spurred new study of the relationship of terrorism and democracy. Specifically, scholars debate the conditions under which terrorist groups to participate in elections, a phenomenon that seemingly conflicts with the peaceful mechanisms of dispute resolution central to democracy. The current literature often begs the question by arguing terrorist participate in elections when they have the political will to do so or when the political systems changes in a manner conducive to terrorist electoral participation. This paper uses binary and multinomial logit regression to test the effect structural factors on the probability of terrorist groups participating in elections and governments allowing them to do so. This paper finds, ceteris paribus, that a terrorist group that maintains relatively equal balance of forces to the state it operates in will participate in elections with a greater likelihood than a terrorist group exhibiting significantly stronger or significantly weaker relative forces. 

Thesis Advisor: Mauro Gilli 

Abstract: The Russian demographic crisis poses a real threat to the projectable power of the Russian state. To counter this crisis, President Vladimir Putin has endorsed and signed into law a public smoking ban seeking to improve the health of Russian citizens. The success of this law has implications for the future of the Russia, yet many scholars do not think the law will have any effect. Scholars cite legal nihilism in arguing that Russian citizens do not comply with laws and question Russia’s capacity to enforce its own laws. By measuring the effects of this smoking ban through survey research at Moscow universities, I offer evidence to suggest that legal nihilism does not exist in the way scholars suggest—Russians will follow the law when it is being enforced and they have information about enforcement. To complement my quantitative research, I use process tracing analysis to offer evidence to suggest that Putin’s backing of a law and signaling to law enforcement agencies causes effective law enforcement in Russia. These inferences from my quantitative and qualitative analyses will provide insight into the debates over Putin’s power, state capacity, and legal nihilism in Russia and will serve as the basis for future research on these topics. 

Thesis Advisor: Jordan Gans-Morse

Abstract: Why do some armed groups succeed where others do not? Both the Basque and Catalan regions of Spain have been home to nationalist, separatist armed groups, yet Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) has persisted for much longer in the Basque region than Terra Lliure did in Catalonia. This paper seeks to explain how social networks affect armed group viability -- whether a group "succeeds" and continues to exist or "fails" and dies out. It will specifically focus on how pre-existing social networks that are both tight-knit and heterogeneous in nature benefit armed groups and contribute to the longevity of an armed group. Two hypotheses are proposed in order to link pre-existing social networks to an armed group's success or failure. Primary source survey and interview evidence I collected from the Basque and Catalan regions of Spain serves as a basis for examining these hypotheses. I argue that differences observed in the social networks of the two regions help explain the failure of Terra Lliure, despite the success of ETA in otherwise very similar environments.

Thesis Advisor: Ana Arjona

Abstract: This thesis examines the effect of public transportation access on political participation, focusing on the case of the ethnically and socioeconomically diverse outlying suburbs of Paris, France. It is argued that, because public transportation allows citizens to access jobs, opportunities for educational advancement, and other civic resources – which have been shown to increase the likelihood of political participation – those who live in close proximity to public transportation routes will be more likely to participate in politics. Though existing literature demonstrates that when voting “costs” – such as distance from a polling place – are higher, people are less likely to vote, little research exists on whether or not public transportation access increases the likelihood of participation in politics. Using two modules of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this thesis tests whether or not citizens who live in electoral districts with comprehensive public transportation networks are more politically active than those who do not. It is concluded that there is some evidence in favor of a connection between public transportation and political participation in the form of grassroots political activity, but there is no indication of a relationship between transportation access and other forms of participation, such as voting or campaigning. These results suggest the need for further research addressing the question of in what specific circumstances public transportation is a predictor of political participation. 

Thesis Advisor: Jason Seawright

Abstract: Kyrgyzstan has always found itself pulled between two great powers: Russia, with which Kyrgyzstan shares a common Soviet past, and a rising China to the east. This paper argues that in the first two decades of its independence, Kyrgyzstan developed a pattern of dual-orientation between Russia and China. Kyrgyzstan's political orientation developed strongly towards Russia, while its economic orientation grew towards China. This dual-orientation resulted from Kyrgyzstan's early domestic institutional development. This paper further argues that this pattern of dual-orientation has become jeopardized since the creation of the Russian-led Customs Union in 2010. This paper examines the ways that Russia has used the Customs Union as a pretext to pursue a regional hegemonic position in Kyrgyzstan, and also offers commentary on the international relations theory that can help explain Russia's actions. 

Thesis Advisor: William Hurst

Abstract: Scholarship on politicized militaries typically focuses on their direct intervention to safeguard tutelary powers; it does not give adequate attention to their role in structuring relationships among political elites. This thesis brings that role to the fore through a comparison of the post-authoritarian transitions in Tunisia and Egypt by analyzing the impact military support for a particular political group has on a democratic outcome. The lack of compromise among political elites that can result from military backing for one group at the onset of a post-authoritarian transition may result in foundational illegitimacy for political institutions and radicalization among the political elite, potentially leading to authoritarian regression.

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: Why would a democratic country that is genuinely committed to its human rights obligations still struggle to enforce them? Is it a question of structural obstacles within the government such as a weak federalist structure? Or, is it a question of regional, cultural and ethnic differences among states that result in varying levels of local commitment to comply with human rights obligations? I will investigate these questions by examining Nigeria’s compliance with treaties and human rights initiatives such as the Convention on the Rights of the Child and the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals as they pertain to Nigeria’s obligation to provide a basic primary education system to all children across the country. My argument is twofold: first, that Nigeria’s federalist structure of government, particularly the level of state and sub-state autonomy that it permits, calls into question the feasibility of adequate implementation of its universal basic education system. Second, I argue that states are confronted with different local obstacles, such as cultural traditions discouraging the education of women, terrorist organizations that are targeting schools and school children, and sub-state level corruption that prevents funding to be properly allocated to improving the education system’s infrastructure. The case of Nigeria is an important one, because it calls into question many of the existing theories on the relationship between democracy and treaty compliance. This relationship should be strong, but in Nigeria, it is the opposite, suggesting that differences on the state and sub-state level in cultural and economic conditions can still hinder human rights treaty compliance in a democracy.

Thesis Advisor: Karen Alter

Abstract: In December 2009, conservative forces in Israel proposed the Foreign Entity Funding Disclosure Bill with the intent of restricting specific types of foreign funding for NGOs in Israel. However, many of the Law's controversial clauses were removed which rendered the final law redundant of statute passed in 1980 and 1996. Why was the 2011 law revised so drastically? As a result of the “Progressive-Left” NGO faction's lobbying, MKs removed vague clauses with the potential to be discriminatory in practice. Although the original bill garnered the support of both the Netanyahu administration and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, NGOs managed to dismantle the proposed policy. It is puzzling, then a faction of leftist human rights NGOs defeated a bill initiated and supported by the powerful Israeli political right. NGOs generated the core opinions debated in a sovereign government's law-making institution. This case shows that NGO influence causes depolarization of decision-making in a legislature. Tracing the dynamics in this case teaches us that NGO influence can compel policymaker convergence on an issue in policy negotiations even in a polarized system.

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Thesis Advisor: Michael Loriaux

Abstract: Cases of state leaders using violence vary across a wide array of points, thereby inviting scholars to select and sort cases into categories for further study. Yet when the views of the men and women responsible for the ordering violence are taken into account, a puzzling pattern emerges: state leaders consistently explain their use of violence with a self-defense narrative. In this paper, I examine the narratives provided by Suharto, Pol Pot, Indira Gandhi, various Rwandan leaders, President Bush, Colonel Gaddafi, and Bashar Al-Assad to analyze their formal expressions of intent for violence against non-state actors. I use examples of rhetoric from each case to highlight the five key features of the state leaders’ explanations of violence. I conclude by arguing that the self-defense narrative allows state leaders to present their violence against non-state actors as consistent with the pertinent provisions of international law while the leaders simultaneously circumvent the Genocide Convention’s definition of “genocide”.

Thesis Advisor: Ian Hurd

Abstract: In this paper I will examine Nicolas Sarkozy’s usage of immigration and security issues in his
speeches during the French presidential election of 2012. These two issues are considered
central to the Front National, a far-right anti-establishment party, and during the election Sarkozy
was accused of exploiting the immigration issue. If he appropriated one issue, it is logical to also
study whether he appropriated the other core issue of the FN. I will argue that Sarkozy does
devote a significant proportion of his speeches to immigration issues in 2012, and does so more
in 2012 than during his 2007 campaign. However, this is not the case regarding security. When
discussing these two issues in his speeches, Sarkozy moderates the frame used by the FN, which
I argue is to make it appear more acceptable and less radical to mainstream voters. This work is
significant as it could indicate a new trend in the mainstream right in France, which could also be
applicable to other mainstream right parties contending with increasingly popular far-right
parties similar to the FN.

Thesis Advisor: Yanna Krupnikov

Abstract: Why leave the ruling party? The ANC’s dominance of the polls since 19941 makes a convincing argument to remain in South Africa’s ruling party, and yet some do choose to exit into the political wilderness. Timing and individual motivation are both key to explaining this phenomenon: the question of why individuals switch parties must necessarily include the questions of when defections occur and who defects. Party switching waxes and wanes partially in response to the political attractiveness of other parties – driven by expectations of their future performance – and partially due to the strictness of institutional rules on switching. Parties in South Africa use a wide array of tactics to change the incentives of defection or non-defection, including fines, preemptive expulsion, and even the use of violence. However, the decision to switch is most critically affected by the motivations and interests of politicians themselves. I conclude that defection from the ANC is most often motivated by a desire for higher office that, in the view of the defector, cannot be satisfied by remaining in the original party.

Thesis Advisor: Rachel Beatty Riedl

Abstract: With high rates of poverty in the United States in mind, two key research questions were considered. The first was how teaching about poverty varies across different social science disciplines. The second question was what effect this teaching has on students’ knowledge and attitudes toward poverty. Three intro-level social science classes at Northwestern (Sociology, Macroeconomics, American Government and Politics) were studied to see how they approached poverty. I found that the sociology class discussed poverty most broadly, while political science and economics hardly addressed poverty or inequality at all. I also examined changes in student knowledge and attitudes toward poverty by distributing a survey before and after the course. The survey indicated that NU students are generally high-SES and liberal. They overestimate the annual poverty wage, and tend to blame poverty on structural deficiencies rather than individual failings. Thus, they prefer educational remedies, such as improving public schools and funding job programs. While there were no large-scale changes in student attitudes after taking the courses, support for a few key policies did change, especially in the economics and sociology classes where specific policies were mentioned. Sociology students increased support for public housing and subsidized daycare, while economics students decreased support for tax credits for the poor and increasing the minimum wage. This suggests that while courses may not have an effect on students’ general political views, mentioning specific policies in class may affect students’ attitudes toward those policies and others that are similar.

Thesis Advisor: Ben Page

Abstract: This project seeks to explain the shift in Irish public opinion towards gay people from 1981 until present. By examining public opinion data, I grouped the shift into three chronological eras: “mere toleration”/acceptance era (81-99), partnership recognition era (2005-2008), and marriage equality era (2008-present). Through historical analysis and an integration of interviews take during a three week visit to Ireland interviewing politicians, activists, students, and ordinary citizens, I have made an argument which involves a tradeoff of power between the Roman Catholic Church and the media in Ireland. Given both the historical stranglehold of the Church over both the politics and the moral will the Irish people coupled with the inimical nature of the Catholic Church to any form of gay rights, the process of acceptance and normalization of gay people was a long and difficult struggle. However, mass media in Ireland turned out to be the main factor that allowed for a humanization of gay rights for the Irish people. This is so for two reasons: the media was instrumental in helping to end the “moral monopoly” of the Church and, after doing this, the media served as a platform on which the Irish people could view fellow gay Irish citizens as ordinary people deserving of rights who are (or easily could be) their siblings, aunts, uncles, co-workers, sons, daughters, and best friends. This paper argues that this humanization of gay people through the Irish media was the main reason that the population of Ireland is now pushing for full marriage equality for same sex couples when it once did not even want to legalize same-sex sexual activity. 

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Roberts

Abstract: In March 2011, Québec finance minister Raymond Bachand officially announced the Liberal Cabinet’s plan to raise university tuition from C$2,168 to C$3,793 over a period of five years beginning in the fall of 2012. Over the following 17 months, hundreds of thousands of Québec students built a mass movement in opposition to the tuition increase. However, not all students participated in the movement, and distinct, but not immediately explicable, activist patterns emerged throughout the course of the struggle; namely, activism was much stronger at Francophone universities than at Anglophone universities. This research is situated in the constructionist perspective of social movements and represents an addition to the small but growing body of research that uses the theoretical insights of social movement literature toward explaining sustained student activism. I applied a methodology that combines interviews, a novel use of social media as an information resource, data on economic and social trends in Québec, and a collection of general qualitative information. Within my case study of four Montréal universities, the evidence suggests that varied levels of activism may be attributed to differences in the relative financial impact of the tuition increase, perceived implications of the tuition increase, and organizational efficacy. 

Thesis Advisor: Edward Gibson

Abstract: Post-Soviet Russia’s first internal war against the breakaway republic of Chechnya, from 1994- 1996, was largely unpopular because of the Russian military’s failures and the Russian government’s missteps. The second, from 1999 to 2009, saw overwhelmingly support despite equally high casualties and costs, and ultimately, a similarly disappointing outcome. Why did the Russian public accept and support a second war after such an unpopular conflict? While a combination of several factors generated and sustained greater public support for the Second Chechen War, I argue that this phenomenon can be attributed primarily to a more deferential, optimistic, pro-Russian press, which itself was cultivated by the Russian government’s media control policies. To investigate the relationship between these policies and public opinion, I examined thousands of headlines from four print news agencies and compared them to casualty rates, fluctuations in public support for the war, and television coverage figures. I found that Russian officials intentionally affected the amount and depth of press coverage of the Second Chechen War in order to generate and maintain public support for the war. The Kremlin’s media control policies, attitudes, and practices lend insight into the nature of counterinsurgency and intra-state conflict in the modern news media environment, especially in the context of a newly free press and an increasingly autocratic government. 

Thesis Advisor: Jonathan D. Caverley

Abstract: India is one of the largest advocates of microfinance in the developing world, expanding the model to reach over 72% of its rural population. The most successful initiative began with the Self Help Group Bank Linkage Program in 1996. Since the program, Self Help Groups (SHGs) have brought women together to pool their assets and gain financial stability. Oftentimes members also participate in basic skills trainings run by local NGOs that encourage social empowerment. In this research, I investigate how SHGs lead to different degrees of political empowerment for members. On the one hand, they can raise activism through NGO training and financial independence. On the other, psychological and social structures within the group can perpetuate societal norms and conservative values common in rural and low-income communities. My observations from fieldwork in Udaipur suggest that SHG members’ relationships within the SHG may limit the progressive influence from a supporting NGO. To support this fieldwork, I conducted a survey of SHG members in Rajasthan to understand their political ideology and behavior. The data suggests that the current structure of SHGs encourages political empowerment in many ways. However, some results suggest that the SHG may impede political empowerment for members. These results help to explain the political effectiveness of the SHG movement as a whole and the progress of women’s empowerment in India. 

Thesis Advisor: James Mahoney

Abstract: This project attempts to answer the following research question: why do protesters choose to engage in or refrain from violence against the police in response to police repression? A historical analysis of the Occupy Wall Street and Occupy Oakland movements and a survey experiment are used to test macro- and micro-level explanations for different decisions regarding the use of violence. It is ultimately concluded that social movement structure cannot determine the likelihood of violence being committed by individual protesters, and a past history of protest participation is the strongest predictor of violence, being associated with a higher incidence of decisions to use violence. Feelings of anonymity in the crowd of participants also seems to have an effect on the proclivity to use violence, reducing the likelihood that a participant will engage in violence. Lethal methods of repression also see a clear “fight or flight” response from protesters, with many choosing to flee or to use lethal force in return. The possible effects of ideology, feelings of solidarity, and age are also investigated, but of these variables, those variables which are statistically significant do not show substantial effects.

Thesis Advisor: Samara Klar

Abstract: With the onset of the economic crisis in Europe in 2008, many countries have seen changes in voting behavior and have experienced a slight rise in the fragmentation of parliament. Greece and Italy in particular stand out as two examples of extreme changes in electoral vote share among the historically dominant parties. Previous literature suggests that party stability is often challenged when a country faces an economic crisis, and generally the incumbent parties are voted out of office. However, the degree of party volatility from one election to the next is not uniform among all countries, and the degree of volatility varies for a number of reasons, not only because of economic voting. This paper analyzes the role of the perceptions of corruption in explaining electoral volatility in eight Eurozone countries, including the PIIGS and non-PIIGS countries. Furthermore, this paper provides a case study of the dramatic electoral shift in the Greek parliamentary elections of 2012. Using both the Pedersen Index Volatility measure and the entropy measure introduced by Ferreira, this study employs a simple regression analysis to determine the strength of the relationship between electoral change, economic variables and the perception of corruption. This study concludes that the perceptions of corruption variable is not particularly strong when looking at the aggregate volatility and entropy data. However if the regression is broken down by country, for some countries the corruption variable is significant and demonstrates a potential correlation between the perceptions of corruption and electoral volatility.

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Nelson

Abstract: Uganda is similar to a number of Sub-Saharan countries in putting in place a quota system in politics to reserve seats for female-only competition. Fifteen years and four Parliaments after the quota system was implemented, some women activists who helped pioneer women’s entrance into politics are disappointed despite the considerable rise in the number of women in Parliament. A lack of women running for open Parliament seats, the inability of Parliament to pass certain gender and family legislation and the low numbers of women in leadership positions have frustrated those activists after the auspicious beginnings of the quota system. Determining how the quota system has affected women’s political empowerment and what challenges may have stagnated such development is important in considering policy recommendations for developing nations. 

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: This study analyzes an unexplored phenomenon within U.S. education and immigration systems—the large number of world leaders with American degrees. Through analyzing time, regional, and regime-type patterns, I seek to explain when and where U.S. educated leaders come to power. The results of this analysis provide insight into the attractiveness of the U.S. as a destination for higher education over time, the regional conditions that put American-educated leaders into office, and the regime-types most favorable to world leaders with U.S. degrees. Second, I speculate about the dominant trend in my data—the large number of Latin American leaders with American educations. This analysis attempts to spotlight broader trends in foreign student migration, examining the Latin American phenomenon from two angles. First, as young students (“pre-U.S. degree”), why do these future-leaders choose to study in the United States? Second, when the individual enters politics (“post-U.S. degree”), what effect does an American education have on them—their political career, their personal views, their attractiveness as a leader? This analysis is placed in the context of sweeping neoliberal reforms across the Latin American region. Finally, I allude to the ability of these leaders to be forces for democracy, with profound implications for American immigration and soft power.

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Roberts

Abstract: A strong and independent judiciary fosters a healthy and functioning democracy, increasing benefits for both civil society and for foreign investors. In Africa, however, the study of judicial independence has been sparse, and executive interference in judiciaries common. Experts posit that factors such as donor aid, presidential longevity, and legislative opposition can affect judicial independence. This project tests and expands these theories in the African context. By comparing trends in judicial independence to donor aid, presidential longevity, and legislative opposition in sub-Saharan African democracies, and by analyzing particular mechanisms in the case studies of Senegal and Nigeria, this study finds presidential longevity to be the most important factor for determining changes in judicial independence in Africa. 

Thesis Advisor: Rachel Riedl

Abstract: Analyzing the interactions between the United States and Iraq over the course of the
Hussein regime reveals a change in the motivating factors behind United States
intervention abroad. A clear progression is evident. The United States begins in 1980
with realist policies that simply consider the material interests of the United States that
are at stake, and then shifts in 1991 to realist motivated policies tempered by normative
ideas such as the importance of international law, and territorial sovereignty. Finally, in
2003, the United States intervenes based on normative ideas such as the responsibility to
protect, and the desire to liberate oppressed peoples by spreading democracy. Through
the examination of the relationship between the United States and Iraq under the Saddam
Hussein regime, it is clear that normative concerns have become more robust in
American foreign policy. The preservation of norms like international law, the
responsibility to protect, and idea that a government is only sovereign if it has the consent
of the governed have gained traction, and are now entrenched in the American decision making process. 

Thesis Advisor: Hendrik Spruyt

Thesis Advisors: Hannah Feldman and Rachel Riedl 

Abstract: This paper attempts to explain how change occurs at the World Bank by addressing the following questions: Why, 50 years after its creation, did the World Bank begin to drastically change its policies related to accountability and adopt a series of difficult changes? What caused accountability to rise to the forefront of the World Bank’s priorities in the mid-1990s, and what contributing factors created an environment where change could occur? The research conducted indicates that three critical antecedent causes brought the topic of accountability to the forefront of the World Bank’s agenda and created a critical juncture period beginning in 1995. During this critical juncture period, structural restraints on change were relaxed, allowing for greater agency on the part of president at the time, James Wolfensohn. Wolfensohn, acting as a change agent, began implementing changes based on the accountability issues raised by these three critical antecedents, as well as his own views on how he could make the institution more accountable. This paper examines these three critical antecedents in depth, showing how they raised the issue of accountability and, in conjunction with Wolfensohn’s willingness to be a force of change, led to the changes that then occurred. This topic, and the subsequent findings, are important because they challenge the traditional model of IO change and offer an alternative framework for understanding how change can occur in large, international organizations. 

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Nelson

Abstract: The Tea Party movement provides an important opportunity to explore how grassroots activism may translate to electoral success. By examining variations in local Tea Party movement activism, I empirically determine how local Tea Party efforts affected election results and voter turnout during the 2010-midterm elections. In addition, I compare Tea Party activism to indicators of economic distress, partisanship, and religion, all of which are often regarded as primary motivations to vote. My findings suggest that while Tea Party activism has an effect on voter turnout, it does not have a significant effect on election results. This research serves to expand our understanding of the impact movement activism has on elections, a phenomenon that is only becoming more common over time. 

Thesis Advisor: Wendy Pearlman

Abstract: Congressional rhetoric about the debt ceiling does not follow set ideological paths. Both Democrats and Republicans use similar arguments and metaphors, though this is often dependent on the party’s status. This holds true even for the leadership of both parties. This rhetoric is similar to the language used by ordinary Americans when discussing the debt ceiling. There are parallels between what congressmen think and what Americans think. The use of partisan rhetoric and the changes of opinion by congressmen reflect political calculation. If a party is in the minority, it benefits from discrediting the majority party or the President. Good governance issues, like wasteful spending or the national debt, provide a tool with which to accomplish this. If a party is in the majority or is of the President’s party, it has an incentive to want its initiatives to succeed. It will support the debt ceiling if this is the case.

Thesis Advisor: Victor C. Shih

Abstract: Between 1988 and 2002, India and Pakistan experience three major crises, one of which escalated to a full-scale war. Why? Existing explanations of interstate relations between nuclear actors expects that deterrence should create conditions of stability. Instead, the period after India and Pakistan both became nuclear states was one of the most unstable in their history. I explore two alternative explanations. First, that incomplete democratization and the attendant weakness of political institutions can create conditions where elites are able to foment crisis through nationalist rhetoric and log-rolling. Second, that because of specific organizational characteristics, when the military is in control of the state, there is a higher chance of crises than under civilian leaders. The question how states will interact when one or several possess nuclear weapons is as relevant today as fifty years ago; simmering tension between India and Pakistan and the growing debate over Iran's pursuit of atomic arms present a vital need for scholarship. This paper attempts to answer the question posed by Pakistan's actions between 1988 and 2002 and by so doing, develop a more sophisticated analytic framework through which to understand the belligerent behavior of nuclear states. 

Thesis Advisor: Hendrik Spruyt

Abstract: This thesis seeks to determine whether California’s recent switch to a new electoral system— designated as the “top‐two” primary—is likely to mitigate the polarization of the state’s legislature, which is the most polarized among American states. First, possible causes for why the California state legislature has become more polarized are examined. Then, this thesis explores how these possible causes may be affected by the top‐two primary. The explanations for California’s legislative polarization are evaluated using longitudinal data from California and comparative data from the three states currently using the top‐two primary: California, Washington, and Louisiana. This thesis concludes that the most compelling explanations for California’s legislative polarization are that California voters have become more and more ideologically and geographically sorted; this thesis also suggests that the scenarios in which the top‐two primary could be expected to reduce California’s legislative polarization are quite limited. There is scattered empirical evidence that some of these scenarios exist in California, but in general the prospects for the top‐two primary to mitigate California’s legislative polarization are not great. 

Thesis Advisor: Laurel Harbridge

Abstract: This thesis is a statistical analysis of factors thought to influence the relationship between law enforcement agencies and immigrants in the Chicagoland area. Specifically, this thesis scrutinizes two factors commonly cited as explanatory variables in that relationship: (1) rapid changes in demographics and (2) societal socioeconomic factors. I argue that rapid demographic changes should not be treated as an independent explanatory variable, as the literature in the field commonly does. Instead, I suggest that rapid changes in demographics should be studied in the context of societal socioeconomic factors. A conclusion without that causal relationship seems to ignore the bigger picture. In other words, socioeconomic factors cause rapid changes in demographics, which together cause variation in police behavior and policies. This study seeks to substantiate the former half of that claim. Consequently, I aim to answer the question: do socioeconomic conditions explain migration movements for foreign-born residents? 

Thesis Advisor: Jaime Dominguez

Abstract: What explains the enormous extant inequalities in funding for K-12 public education? As over 90% of K-12 public education is financed at the state and local levels, this paper uses regression analysis to quantify the estimated effects of the key factors contributing to these two funding sources. The local revenue per pupil (RPP) model draws on panel data from a case study of 100 randomly selected public school districts in Illinois for the years between 2001-2010. Similarly, the state RPP model relies on panel data from all 50 states for the years between 1995-2009. The analysis indicates that up to 95% of the variation in revenue from local sources, and 78% of that from state sources, can be to attributed to differences in fiscal capacity. This paper concludes with a brief discussion about the policy implications arising from this finding.

Thesis Advisor: Dennis Chong

Abstract: This thesis seeks to explore the ideological extremity of female political leaders in Congress. The main hypothesis of the thesis is that female leaders in Congress are more ideologically extreme than male leaders. If female leaders are more ideologically extreme than male leaders, then this could have serious implications for the public policy. Throughout this work, I make the assumption that ideological extremity can have policy consequences. If female leaders are more ideologically extreme than male leaders, then this may be attributed to the types of females who actually run for positions of leadership in the modern era and the pool of candidates they come from. Or being elected as a leader changes the females’ political behavior, causing it to become more extremist. However, at the end of the analysis, female leaders do not appear to be more ideologically extreme compared to male leaders. 

Thesis Advisor: Laurel Harbridge

Abstract: The Smoleńsk airplane crash of April 2010 wiped out a large and important part of the Polish political elite, including the Polish president, close to the site of the Katyń Massacre of 1940. Such an event would seem to increase political polarization in Poland and awaken negative sentiments toward Russia. Yet Polish society and the political elite do not seem to be as shaken by the tragedy as first impressions might suggest. This study analyzes public opinion polls, interviews, election manifestos, and official visits between Russia and Poland to determine changes in political polarization as well as attitudes toward Russia. The population unified shortly after the crash, and after a period of recalibration, attitudes on both measures largely returned to pre-Smoleńsk levels. However, the far-right political elite became more radicalized. Overall, Poland, a member of the European Union and NATO, seems to be rather stable.

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Roberts

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a changing international threat environment at the end of the Cold War (1987-1992) on relations within the Atlantic Alliance. As the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s and regionalized conflict replaced large-scale superpower confrontation as the primary threat to international security in the early 1990s, NATO allies were driven to cooperate more closely in managing risks to transatlantic stability. A three-dimensional conceptualization of cooperation and discord within NATO that accounts for 1.) Alliance members’ engagement in joint military missions; 2.) the perceived (un)fairness of allies’ economic contributions to NATO; and 3.) policy (dis)agreement among NATO members reveals that, contrary to common belief, relations within the Alliance grew relatively more cooperative, rather than less cooperative, throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s. A neorealist model that judges perceived external threat by examining the perceived urgency of threat, and that rejects perceived force levels as the measure of perceived external threat, will accurately explain the increase in intra-NATO cooperation between 1987 and 1992; this model more effectively captures the influence of the changed, post-Cold War threat environment on intra-Alliance relations than traditional neorealist, institutionalist or pluralist hypotheses for intra-alliance behavior do. 

Thesis Advisor: Ian Hurd

Abstract: Considering that the State Supreme Courts in California and Massachusetts came down with nearly identical rulings on the legality of same-sex marriage, why is it that same-sex marriage has essentially become the norm in Massachusetts, while California’s tumultuous battle with this issue since 2008 will almost certainly end at the Supreme Court in Washington D.C.? By analyzing the pro- and anti-same-sex marriage movements in the two states through the framework of Social Movement Theory, the reasons for this disparity come to light. The theory’s three central tenets: (1) political opportunities, (2) mobilizing structures, and (3) framing processes offer an excellent framework from which to approach this question, providing a context in which the key factors contributing to marriage equality are easily aligned. Once these factors in Massachusetts and California are compared and contrasted within the framework, two states that may appear similar at first glance become exceedingly different.

Thesis Advisor: Larry Stuelpnagel

Abstract: In the history of the United States military, different groups have fought for and won the right to fully serve in the Armed Forces. This thesis investigates the policy process surrounding the integration of African Americans, women, and gays and lesbians into the military. Drawing on experiences of other industrialized countries and U.S.-based literature on policy formation, I argue that public opinion is a constraint on which branch of government will act to implement policy change. The courts will act even if public opinion is not in favor of policy change, while the elected branches are more likely to act if public opinion is in favor of policy change. Applying these hypotheses to the three case studies yields mixed results. The findings highlight the collaborative nature of the policy process rather than a perspective that involves just one branch of government acting independently.

Thesis Advisor: Laurel Harbridge

Abstract: Despite the constitutional guarantees of an independent judiciary, the confirmation process for federal judges has become increasingly politicized. While most scholars and commentators point to the failed nomination of Robert Bork to the United States Supreme Court as the turning point for Supreme Court nominations, I seek to determine what factors make a Circuit Court of Appeals nomination more or less likely to succeed. Building on the work of Epstein, Lindstädt, Segal, and Westerland (2006) on Supreme Court nominees, I regress Circuit Court of Appeals nominations against nominee ideology, perceived qualifications, minority status, and presidential strength. I find that, among the 339 Circuit Court of Appeals nominations from 1989 to 2010, ideology has only been a statistically significant predictor of confirmation outcomes in the years since the 1994 midterm elections, also known as the “Republican Revolution.”

Thesis Advisor: Martin Sweet

Abstract: Why do some African presidents retire according to term limits while others seek to repeal them? Among those who seek to cling to power, why do some succeed and others fail? Debates deciding whether to enforce term limits reveal the sources and the strength of the rule of law in African states. Democratization theories suggest five possible explanations for term limits enforcement: voluntary cession of power; strong individual opposition leaders; institutional pressures; populist pressures; and foreign pressures. An examination of six African cases reveals the critical influence of domestic institutional pressures – particularly from linkages between political opponents, legislatures, and civil society organizations – on term limits enforcement. Democratic activists and foreign pressures are occasionally influential, but they have not played a decisive role. The broader lessons from term limits debates illustrate that the strength of the rule of law depends on the interdependence between opposition leaders, political parties, and legislative and judicial institutions.

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: This thesis provides an empirical analysis of the redistribution of fiscal resources at the subnational level of Mexico’s federal system during and since the country’s transition into a fully competitive democracy in 2000. It argues that Mexico’s system of fiscal federalism, notoriously politicized during the era of single-party dominance under the PRI, continued to be influenced by partisan considerations after Vicente Fox became the first non-PRI president in modern Mexican history in 2000. However, evidence indicates that the effects of politics on fiscal distribution declined during the later stages of the Fox administration. The paper’s analysis also has implications for the study of redistributive theories in general. It provides empirical support for the Electoral Risk Model of redistributive politics, arguing that political parties differ in the tactics they employ to politicize resource distribution depending on how they perceive the risks associated with the use of political redistribution. The paper also builds on the Electoral Risk Model by demonstrating that risk perceptions are not static. Political shockwaves, such as the 2000 round of elections in Mexico, may result in major and rapid shifts in how politicians perceive risk and, consequently, in how they employ redistributive politics.

Thesis Advisor: Jason Seawright

Abstract: The Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh is a site of long-lasting political discontent in India. Many Telangana residents seek their own state because they feel an enhanced sense of regional identity and are dissatisfied over the region’s backwardness in education, agriculture, and economy. Given previous, failed attempts at state formation, this paper seeks to answer why the movement for a separate Telangana has reemerged in the twenty-first century and how political elites have fostered this activism. In a competitive electoral system less dominated by the Congress Party than it was during the first half of India’s democratic history, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi provides a formal political engagement that was not present in earlier attempts at Telangana state formation. Meanwhile, Joint Action Committees and their elite organizers gain support by inciting passions and promoting a subregional identity that is incompatible with that of those living in Andhra Pradesh’s other districts. These committees act by organizing people and educating the masses, thereby granting ideological force to the Telangana movement while uniting the rural periphery with an educated urban society. The analysis here suggests that rapid economic development and the advent of a more competitive democratic system do not diminish state formation claims, even though India's economy has become more reliant on private enterprise and political channels to the center have proliferated.

Thesis Advisor: William Reno

Abstract: Race is one of the most divisive social cleavages in the United States. In politics, race continues to play a role in how voters evaluate candidates, public policy and campaign messages. In addition to these effects, race also exhibits a contextual influence: that is, people’s racial attitudes are shaped when they live near and come into contact with those of another race. This thesis uses the 2008 Presidential election of Barack Obama as a test of how and when racial contexts influence individual voting behavior and evaluations of the country’s first African-American major party presidential nominee. The thesis finds that the contextual influence of one’s racial surroundings is real. In some circumstances, increased numbers of nearby blacks engender more positive views toward the out-group (i.e., blacks) and voting support for black political candidates, but not in all conditions. The effect differs depending on certain factors. Neighborhood population density and one’s pre-existing racial attitudes mediate the contextual effect of race.

Thesis Advisor: Reuel Rogers

Abstract: This thesis explores the foundations of the extraordinary growth and importance of volunteers in the National Park Service. Using a coproduction framework, it explains why the Volunteers-in-Parks program has grown to its current state. Additionally, it explains why coproduction has prevailed as the response to the Park Service’s need for more resources. It is argued that a unique matrix of volunteer motivations creates a large supply of willing volunteers. Furthermore, the parks are shown to exist in a state of organizational poverty, which drives demand for unpaid workers. These supply and demand forces have fueled the growth of volunteerism. Finally, this thesis argues that theories of the hollow state and short-circuited democracy together explain why volunteerism has prevailed in the parks. It is concluded that hollow state volunteerism is inextricably tied to park health while short-circuited democracy volunteerism would subside if citizens became more aware of the important role volunteers play in the National Park Service.

Thesis Advisor: H. Paul Friesema